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Technology Stocks : Nokia Corp. (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (4720)	3/29/2007 11:58:50 AM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 9255

Moto Impact on RFMD, Skyworks, TriQuint The title of Lehman Brothers RF Micro Devices update by Jeff Kvaal and Tim Luke this morning is "Estimates Lower on MOT Weakness." They comment: While RFMD's March Q appears to be on track, unsurprisingly the MOT miss is impacting June quarter revenues, which are now expected to decline sequentially. We continue to believe that RFMD's position is healthy longer term and expect a return to growth in 2H07. RFMD's June quarter impacted by MOT weakness and expected to decline sequentially. We estimate MOT miss may be a $10 mn impact for RFMD and model revenues -4% sequentially vs our prior +5%. We expect some offset by share gains at other RFMD customers (NOK) & some insulation offered by RFMD's concentration in the mid tier at MOT. With a gross margin decline, we model EPS of $0.06 vs our prior $0.11. June quarter expected to decline on lower demand from Motorola: Due to weakness at top (~30%) customer Motorola, RFMD now expects June quarter revenues, margins and EPS to decline sequentially. We had previously modeled growth of 5%. We estimate Motorola missed their estimates for the quarter by approximately 10 mn units. We estimate RFMD has approximately 20% share at Motorola, and estimate approximately $5 content per device. We therefore incorporate a $10 mn impact on our June quarter estimates, modeling revenues down 4% sequentially. We believe the handset market overall remains healthy and the negative impact on RFMD will likely be partially offset by competitors (Nokia) picking up Motorola’s share, though likely with a $2 RFMD component versus Polaris. We also believe RFMD's concentration in the mid tier at MOT may provide some insulation. Looking forward, we believe P2 is designed into phones Motorola will be launching in 2H07. We however believe we are now entering the latter stages of P2 share gains and expect there may be some cresting with respect to share at MOT in the near term. We believe further P2 growth will be driven by new customer traction. We expect the P3 is on track to ramp in 2H07, initially at Nokia, with potentially another top tier customer in the December quarter. Management has commented that they expect the P3 opportunity to be at least as large as P2, but the pace of the ramp remains uncertain. We believe RFMD continues to expand partnerships with vendors such as EMP and QUALCOMM. For example, the company just launched the 3161 EDGE PA to be partnered with EMP or QCOM basebands. We believe Skyworks currently has approximately a 90% share at EMP. Laterals; potentially larger impact on Skyworks: We expect Motorola’s weakness may have a similar and a potentially bigger impact on rival Skyworks and would not be surprised by a similar announcement. Motorola is a 20%+ customer to Skyworks. We believe Skyworks has greater exposure to Motorola's areas of weakness - namely the low end (MOTOFONE, C Series), iDEN, KRZR and 3G (RAZR MAXX). We believe Skyworks has minimal exposure to Nokia currently, though we expect a win in GSM later this year. TriQuint generates approximately 10% of sales from Motorola and so may be exposed as well. Elsewhere (CTIA Day 2 Report) they say MOT: Revenue synergy planning is underway at Symbol, though at a slower pace than we hoped. Excess channel inventory may clear during the summer. ... Separate data points gathered externally suggest that Motorola's channel inventory balance may clear in 3Q, which may coincide with the launch of its 2H07 phone portfolio. Also: Brightpoint Growing Position in a Healthy Handset Market: Brightpoint believes that the overall handset market is healthy despite the unit shipment challenges of the second-largest player Motorola. We believe Nokia, Samsung, Sony Ericsson and others are expanding their share at Motorola's expense. Brightpoint believes the market could reach 1.1-1.2 bn phones this year. Our estimate is 1.09 bn. - Eric -

To: slacker711 who wrote (4720)	4/7/2007 1:04:50 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 9255

Upgraded Nokia Forum Device Specs Slacker, Did you notice that Nokia Forum has started to add CPU Type (ARM11/ARM9, single/dual, 3D Graphics accelerator), Processor Speed, and expanded memory detail to their Symbian S60 Device Specifications? Examples: Nokia N95 CPU: === -> Dual CPU -> CPU Type: ARM 11 -> CPU Clock Rate: 332 MHz -> 3D Graphics HW Accelerator Memory: ======= -> Max User Storage: 160 MB -> NAND Memory: 256 MB -> SDRAM Memory: 64 MB -> ~20 MB Free Executable RAM Memory -> Memory Card: Micro SD -> Max Memory Card Size: 2 GB -> Memory Card Feature: Hot Swap -> Unlimited Heap size and Unlimited Jar size Nokia E90 Communicator CPU: ==== -> Dual CPU -> CPU Type: ARM 11 -> CPU Clock Rate: 332 MHz -> 3D Graphics HW Accelerator Memory: ======= -> Max User Storage: 128 MB -> NAND Memory: 256 MB -> SDRAM Memory: 128 MB -> ~80 MB Free Executable RAM Memory -> Memory Card: Micro SD -> Max Memory Card Size: 2 GB -> Memory Card Feature: Hot Swap -> Unlimited Heap size and Unlimited Jar size Nokia 5700 XpressMusic CPU: ==== -> Single CPU -> CPU Type: ARM 11 -> CPU Clock Rate: 369 MHz Memory: ======= -> Max User Storage: 35 MB -> NAND Memory: 128 MB -> SDRAM Memory: 64 MB -> ~18 MB Free Executable RAM Memory -> Memory Card: Micro SD -> Max Memory Card Size: 2 GB -> Memory Card Feature: Hot Swap -> Unlimited Heap size and Unlimited Jar size Nokia N77 CPU: ==== -> Dual CPU -> CPU Type: ARM 9 -> CPU Clock Rate: 220 MHz Memory: ======= -> Max User Storage: 20 MB -> NAND Memory: 128 MB -> SDRAM Memory: 64 MB -> ~20 MB Free Executable RAM Memory -> Memory Card: Micro SD -> Max Memory Card Size: 2 GB -> Memory Card Feature: Hot Swap -> Unlimited Heap size -> Unlimited Heap size and Unlimited Jar size ### - Eric -