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To: T L Comiskey who wrote (103411)	3/29/2007 10:46:56 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 361419

3 bil? Sounds like Malthus. That only leaves another 1 or 2 more (<: New Stern climate warning Peter Hannam March 28, 2007 SIR Nicholas Stern, the author of the world's most comprehensive study of the economic impact of climate change, says fresh research into the planet's carbon sink suggests his report probably underestimated the potential damages. New research indicated a weakening of the so-called carbon cycle, in particular the ability of the planet's oceans to absorb carbon dioxide, Sir Nicholas said. And the risks threatening forests, another type of carbon sink, "are stronger than we thought", he said. "So I think we are seeing early signs that some risks are bigger than the ones that we included." Sir Nicholas, a senior adviser to Britain's Treasury, is due to hold meetings with Prime Minister John Howard and Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd today in Canberra, where he will also address the National Press Club. His official report for the British Government intensified the debate about the economic impact of global warming worldwide when it was released last October. The main conclusions were that combating climate change would cost the equivalent of about 1 per cent a year of global economic output, with the costs of not acting possibly up to 20 times that amount. His report describes climate change as "the greatest market failure the world has ever seen". Sir Nicholas said he would not prescribe policies for governments other than his own. That said, he is likely to tell Mr Howard and Mr Rudd that they should join leaders of other wealthy nations to set targets for deep greenhouse gas emission cuts. "It would be a very good idea if all rich countries, including Australia, set themselves a target for 2050 of at least 60 per cent emissions reductions (on 1990 levels)," he told The Age. Since the developed world contributed 75 per cent of current emissions and were responsible for the bulk of the human-sourced carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, they had a responsibility to make the biggest cuts, he said. Even if those cuts were achieved, the planet would be left with about 550 parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050, a target for stabilisation that many view as "fairly modest", he said. "It would leave us roughly a 50/50 chance of being either side of 3 degrees Centigrade above pre-industrial times," he said. Last month, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted temperatures would rise by between 1.1 degrees and 6.4 degrees by 2100, with humans the prime culprits. Average global temperatures have already risen about 0.7 to 0.8 degrees since 1900. Computer models of future climate impacts show that with a further 1-degree rise, extensive loss of wetland habitat would be expected in Kakadu due to rising sea levels. At 2 to 3 degrees higher, the world could see the collapse of the Amazon forest system, causing huge losses of animal and plant species. with LIZ MINCHIN theage.com.au Rat@RHumansSmarterThanYeast.org

To: T L Comiskey who wrote (103411)	3/29/2007 10:55:47 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 361419

March 27, 2007 Chinese Biofuels Expansion Threatens Ecological Balance by Yingling Liu, Worldwatch Institute The recent agreement between China's top forestry authority and one of the nation's biggest energy giants to develop biofuels plantations in the southwest reflects rising Chinese attention to non-fossil energy sources. But the excitement may come at great environmental loss to the region's forests and biological diversity, suggesting significant trade offs associated with the renewable fuels. The biofuels plantations will allegedly be built on marginal lands, including degraded forestlands and croplands, of which Yunnan province alone has more than 4 million, according to a local official. Yet it is not rare in China for local governments to sell off lush hills to logging companies as "waste forestlands." According to the agreement, signed by China's State Forestry Administration (SFA) and the oil company PetroChina in January, the parties will join efforts in developing two Jatropha curcas plantation bases in Yunnan and Sichuan provinces, with biofuel production capacities of 10,000-30,000 tons each and a combined area of more than 40,000 hectares, according to China Green Times. Jatropha, a hardy oilseed bush with seeds containing over 30 percent oil, is regarded as an ideal raw material for biodiesel production. The Chinese government has since embraced additional biofuels expansion. On February 7, an SFA spokesman told the press that the country was ready to devote more than 13 million hectares of forestlands to biofuels production, Xinhua News Agency reported. And several local governments have embarked on or are planning ambitious long-term oilseed plantation projects. According to blueprints from the Yunnan Provincial Forestry Department, the province will construct 1.27 million hectares of biofuels plantations and aims to become China's biggest biofuels base by 2015, achieving an annual production capacity of 4 million tons of ethanol and 600,000 tons of biodiesel. Forty counties in the province have begun to develop biofuels plantations. Ever-rising demand to fuel the country's motor vehicle fleet is driving these developments. A recent study by the National Bureau of Statistics reports that private vehicle ownership in China reached 29.25 million by the end of 2006, a 23.7 percent increase over 2005. While it took nearly two decades for Chinese car ownership to exceed 10 million (in 2003), an additional 10 million cars were added in only three years. China currently shows a ratio of 60 people per motor vehicle, compared with a world average of 11.5, indicating huge growth potential for the Chinese market. Development of the new biofuels plantations will be funded by PetroChina and carried out by forestry authorities at various levels. Both parties have stated that the efforts will be undertaken in the interest of national sustainability, though there is strong suspicion that these actors are placing greater priority on fast and lucrative returns. An all-out development in ecologically sensitive southwestern China will almost certainly wreak havoc on the environment. The region is home to the country's largest remaining intact natural forests, which are vital for maintaining the local and regional climatic balance. These areas have already shrunk rapidly due to rampant logging in recent years, while the new biofuels craze will likely pull the last string of ecological collapse in the region. The biofuels plantations will allegedly be built on marginal lands, including degraded forestlands and croplands, of which Yunnan province alone has more than 4 million, according to a local official. Yet it is not rare in China for local governments to sell off lush hills to logging companies as "waste forestlands." With the new incentives created by biofuels, such "black-box" deeds will likely continue and possibly worsen. Equally daunting is the looming damage to the region's biodiversity from massive monoculture plantations of biofuels crops. Blessed with a favorable geographic location and unique landscapes, natural forests in southwestern China have long been a paradise for flora and fauna, home to more than 6,000 plant species and over 1,000 animal species. Nibbled away by plantations of jatropha and other biofuels plantations, the future of those species appears startling bleak. Yingling Liu is the China Program Manger at the Worldwatch Institute. This article was reprinted with permission from the Worldwatch Institute. renewableenergyaccess.com