To: Slagle who wrote (16184 ) 4/5/2007 2:54:21 AM From: elmatador Respond to of 217588 Brazil’s government expenditures can be placed in three main categories: consumption, such as welfare spending and public-sector wages; investments; and debt servicing. They constitute more than 40 percent of GDP—a share much higher than in other developing economies—because social-welfare spending has increased dramatically in recent years. Brazil also spends a comparatively high share of GDP on servicing its debt, which mostly has relatively short maturities and is indexed to inflation and interest rates, thus making the country vulnerable to shocks.5 Meanwhile, government investments in the infrastructure, which have declined from 3.6 percent a year of GDP in the early 1980s to around 1 percent today, are considerably lower than those of many countries at a comparable stage of development. By substantially reducing the share of GDP that the government consumes, Brazil could create a virtuous cycle. Lower public spending would allow the government to reduce taxes and the public sector’s debt burden. Lower tax rates could help make informality less common, and reduced debt could help bring down real interest rates. Lower interest rates, in turn, are crucial to encourage higher investment, whether in automation, new technologies, or additional capacity. With higher investment and productivity, the economy will grow faster, and tax revenues may rise even as tax rates fall. This would make room for further public investment in infrastructure, which would help boost productivity in many sectors, leading to further economic growth and the possibility of reducing the country’s debt and tax burdens even more mckinseyquarterly.com