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To: CommanderCricket who wrote (82573)	4/5/2007 3:41:59 PM
From: LoneClone	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 206325

I have heard mainstream economists lately arguing that there will be almost no manufacturing jobs left in Canada or the US by 2020. Of course, China has lost many more manufacturing jobs the last 10 years than the US or Canada, even when you look at it on a per capita basis. LC

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (82573)	4/5/2007 3:44:55 PM
From: CommanderCricket	Respond to of 206325

I should mention that our affluent lifestyle for the typical american is quickly going away. Many are going to be insecure about the punch bowl going bye - bye... Make $35k/year, own a new house and drive a Lexus? Those days are numbered and should be. Doesn't mean the country is going to hell in a hand basket. CC

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (82573)	4/5/2007 4:00:13 PM
From: profile_14	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206325

Yes, but the US is still the dog, the others the tail, and the nervous system is much more effective because of worldwide integration. The excesses can continue far longer than anyone can stay liquid or alive, but they are incredible and the markets are not cheap IMO, no matter what anyone says. Energy companies this year, refiners excepted IMO, are going to have very hard comparisons YOY. Inflation is alive and well and the party is coming to an end as rates rise. The dollar tanking (and more today) is proof that we are going to make exporting countries suffer along our side as we devalue our way out of our debt. Anyone believe that the commodity price appreciation rate is sustainable? Who can afford it? Not the USA and for sure no one else. Overcapacity and expansion will kill the goose that laid the golden egg, just like it does to all cyclicals and like it did to housing, despite the housing bulls and Bill Toll saying the sky was the limit in the summer of 2005, fall of 2005, spring of 2006, etc., even as recently as last month among other CEOs. It is a game of musical chairs and no one wants to be left standing. Yes, employment is high, but MARGINAL changes in demand will have a significant ripple across multiple sectors since we are at full employment, virtually in nirvana. It does not get better from here IMO.

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (82573)	4/5/2007 4:11:44 PM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206325

China Again Raises Reserve Ratio >>>Commander, you were saying something about the heat in the global economy and missing the big picture. (I sent this to someone else, maybe a repeat here but don't think so.)<<< A WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE NEWS ROUNDUP April 5, 2007 7:35 a.m. BEIJING -- China said Thursday it will raise the reserve requirement ratio for banks by half a percentage point, its third increase this year, signaling a more aggressive approach to curbing liquidity and controlling investment growth. The latest increase, which will take effect April 16 and raises the ratio for most commercial banks to 10.5%, comes on top of repeated interest-rate rises and investment curbs imposed on real estate, auto manufacturing and other industries over the past year. The effort has had limited success in slowing the growth of investment. In a brief statement on its Web site, the People's Bank of China said it will "use various tools to strengthen management of liquidity in the banking system, maintain liquidity around suitable levels, and prevent overly rapid growth of credit." The PBOC added it will maintain a prudent monetary policy. Economists expect similar reserve increases once every quarter this year to compensate for the swelling amount of money in the banking system amid multibillion-dollar export surpluses. Chinese leaders want to maintain rapid growth in the economy, which expanded by 10.7% last year. But they worry that excessive investment in real estate, factories and other assets will leave banks with dangerously high debts if borrowers go bankrupt. Despite the controls, total investment rose by 24% last year, according to government figures. Besides the two previous reserve ratio increases, Beijing also raised the benchmark lending and deposit rates by 0.27 percentage point in March. These tightening measures come amid signs that China's monetary conditions, which tightened late last year after a series of control measures, had loosened. Broad money supply, or M2, at the end of February rose 17.8% from a year earlier, faster than expected, while new yuan loans in February totaled 413.8 billion yuan ($53.55 billion), compared with 149.1 billion yuan in the year-earlier period. China's consumer price index in the first two months of this year rose 2.4% from the same period a year earlier, within the government's target of an under-3% CPI rise this year, but higher than the 1.5% gain in 2006.

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (82573)	4/5/2007 6:32:49 PM
From: lazarre	Respond to of 206325

I'm with you, CC. e.g. another widely unknown fact is though Chindia is importing nearly 3% of oil year to year, they're importing nearly double that % in nickel ( for steel ) and copper from last year's levels. This benefits , of course, the mining industries who also experience a lack of qualified workers to do the job and strike while the iron is at it's hottest for decades, relatively speaking. Oh, yeah, you forgot to mention good salesman---whether it me washing machines or ISP services. lazarre