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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (26485)	4/7/2007 3:55:17 PM
From: a128	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78740

Investing is a marathon, not a sprint. The best buying opportunities historically come when things look the bleakest. "Buy when there is blood in the street" has worked well for me over the years. All that being said, It seems likely that AHM will come under selling pressure Monday. I do NOT intend to sell into weakness. The valuation based on PE ,dividend yield & book value is very reasonable. I would like to see some more insiders step up and buy next week. If they do, I would consider adding to my position. If not, I will probably hold tight. Im long at an adjusted avg cost of $22.74. I bought the stock expecting to own it for several years and nothing has changed my mind. Any longs who didnt think a dividend cut was possible or even likely was living in a fantasy world.

To: Madharry who wrote (26485)	4/8/2007 7:49:16 PM
From: Carl Worth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78740

just so that things are a bit more accurate: - issuing this release on friday in the middle of the day, with a full press release (not just an 8-K filing) is no different than warning thursday night or monday morning - they have said since they first went public, every quarter, without fail, that until the dividend was officially declared by the board of directors, it was not an obligation - they increased their loss reserve in Q4, and said they expected a tough year in 2007 - they said in at least the last two quarters that they would have increased repurchases of loans...again, in Q4, they said 2007 would be a challenging year, and they hoped that repurchases would start to slow down by Q4 of 2007...all they did friday was reiterate that statement - no doubt that the mortgage business is in flux now, you want them to give you firm estimates of something that is an unknown? this is not to say that AHM is by any means a buy...it's just a wish (dream) that housing/mortgage stocks could be discussed by looking at the FACTS, not with a bunch of innuendo...i know SI has turned into a wasteland of hyperbole and polarized babble, but one can always hope that a few threads could be spared and kept useful