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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (62181)	4/7/2007 11:02:00 PM
From: golfinvestor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 197013

Not sure how you came to that conclusion Lim. NOK may earn interest on $800m to $1bn for a year or so, but more than likely they will still pay the freight. BTW, keeping Masa on ignore sure cuts down on the meaningless posts to read. <4. The law suits drag on and on with no real winner except the lawyers and NOK who save in cash an amount which would have been about $800m to $1bn a year in payments to the Q.>

To: limtex who wrote (62181)	4/8/2007 1:13:29 PM
From: JGoren	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 197013

You're scenario is about as good as any at this point in time. I suspect, however, that there will be some intervening forces long before 3-4 years. The carriers could get fed up and start making noise, although they have less impact on NOK because NOK is doing so little business now with VZ and Sprint. That is one reason why NOK feels it can engage in its tactics. I still think the end of 2008 is fish or cut bait time for NOK. The arbitration should be interesting, since Qcom seeks either a declaration that the option was renewed or Qcom can terminate all rights. We've speculated over various scenarios as to what the option means, but we really don't know. What is really unclear is whether there are any Qcom "non-paid-up" patents that could cut NOK's legs out underneath it. Presumably NOK has tried to avoid using any or it wouldn't be taking the piecemeal payment approach. I doubt if the European exhaustion litigation will be successful. I don't think the Delaware litigation where NOK attempts to get the court to determine a FRANDLY rate will be successful. There are just too many variables, I think, for a court to make a determination. For one thing, nobody knows for sure what IPR will be needed in the future. NOK is seeking a rate and other terms based on a fixed time. Plus, what happens if NOK says it only wants to use x patents and then ends up using more, which are unlicensed? We're back in the same situation where NOK claims it can use them upon a FRANDLY rate? It's a never ending game. If NOK declines to license some patents, then I can't see how it can change its mind later. That's Qcom's argument that it is obligated to license only once. It is going to take an army of lawyers to figure this out, if they even can, and the litigation is so broken up in separate suits and jurisdictions, nobody will see the big picture. The risk, of course, to each company is that there is a really bad result for one. I really don't think NOK has four years in which it cannot pay without an injunction of some sort. Some court is likely to break the impasse with an injunction if for no other reason than to break the impasse.

To: limtex who wrote (62181)	4/10/2007 6:41:17 PM
From: lml	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197013

Lets see what happens over the next three or four years or until the arbitration comes to a conlusion before that unless NOK can use their delaying tactics to keep it going for four years. 1. Q and NOK carry on business as usual. 2. Q loses some income from NOK but others may gain in market share if Q can get the costs down. 3. Qtly earnings come along as ususal and hopefully Qs business continues to grow and new areas like Media Flo gain traction and take off. 4. The law suits drag on and on with no real winner except the lawyers and NOK who save in cash an amount which would have been about $800m to $1bn a year in payments to the Q. Anything wrong with this analysis? If I may chime in, in my effort to catch up with the voluminous # of posts to this thread, I think what's missing is increasing pressure upon the parties, but in particular, NOK, to come to settlement as the uncertainty now created will create tension among carriers and manufacturers who employ the licensed technology in issue in their own business models. I read a lotta analysis here, as well as some debate, which is great. But we don't know all the facts, so we all draw many inferences. I for one, have draw my own by reading b/w the lines of the many public statements, press releases & the like. I've come to my own conclusion that NOK believes it has a relatively short fuse to come to some settlement before its customers (i.e., chip manufacturers, carriers) start to lose patience. We've read a lotta public relation oriented press releases from NOK, including the latest, the so called "good faith" tender of partial payment under the expiring licensing agreement. In contrast, we've not read much along the same lines from Q, though many here have been pounding the table for Q to do the same. Conclusion I've come to is that NOK's name in the marketplace is more @ risk than Q's. I guess except for this stock message board, pretty much everyone else in the world, in particular, Europe, already hates Q with a passion. So, Q, in this respect, has little to lose in the public relations battle. It can rely more exclusively rely upon its legal position either when arguing its case before a tribunal, or when conducting hard negotiations with NOK, whose details, BTW, never see the light of day. In contrast, NOK, presently enjoys its more popular "citizen of the world" status across the globe. It's legal position, established toward wringing a lower royalty rate out of Q, is comparatively weak. It therefore is more focused upon maintaining & supporting its brand and image in the marketplace as a strategy to offset potential risk to its brand & image that is likely to occur as this stalemate drags on. All JMO.