To: Wharf Rat who wrote (226420 ) 4/8/2007 2:24:35 PM From: Nadine Carroll Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500 Wigley has subsequently warned that his analysis 'assumed that Kyoto was followed to 2010, and that there were no subsequent climate mitigation policies.' The point of the paper was not to bash Kyoto (which goes into effect internationally on February 16) but rather to demonstrate that it represents only a first step toward climate stabilization. 'Once we've done Kyoto we're obviously going to do other things,' says Wigley. Just for an obvious point, nobody is following Kyoto, not even its signatories, and by the treaty's own admission, it would hardly make a measurable difference if everybody followed Kyoto. If the world wanted to do something sensible, it would concentrate on trying figure out the local effects of climate change and spend the money adapting to them. But that would mean the models would have to be good enough to predict local climate change, and they are obviously not. I can believe that there is a greenhouse effect, and that manmade co2 is adding to it. But everytime I look for proof of how much of the current warming is manmade (since we are obviously in a warming trend anyway), I start hearing about consensus instead of evidence. If there was evidence, they would present it. If the models could show the effects in New York specifically, they would do so. The science just isn't there. Since climate is a chaotic system perhaps it can never be there. My belief is that within 30 years, this scare will have worn itself out and people will have moved on to some new scare. If it does get a little warmer, people will be going, so what? it's mostly helpful anyway.