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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: blitzfund who wrote (75173)	4/9/2007 4:49:05 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

I think there is one idiot only, but unfortunately he is in charge -g- There are a lot of smart people around. The big GZ model does not have a sell signal yet. If the market drops, it could arrive this week. If it does not, a ST sell is more likely some time in the middle of next week. This week is expiration week. Since markets are run by crooks, I'd expect them to try close them higher into expiration, just to make all April puts expire worthless. A lot of that, of course, depends on liquidity. Usually at least temporary liquidity is provided by the Fed during expiration week. So, Bulldog's liquidity arguments, while they are right, may have to be postponed for a week or so, until the temporary liquidity injected this week expires. We'll see. Happy Easter! -g- P.S. Tentative date for a sell is April, 18. Tentative price for SP is 1454 cash. It may happen earlier, even this week, if we move down from here and certain price levels are crossed. GZ may disagree, since this is from cash SP data. So, looks like we'll move up into expiration!

To: blitzfund who wrote (75173)	4/9/2007 5:18:02 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 94695

A bigger up wave GZ was using might go well into May. May,11 or so, and > 1510 for SP. I'm using cash as well, so ... some discrepancy with GZ, who is using futures prices -g- His model is less reliable on 2-months time frame, more reliable on 1- week time frames. April, 18 is more of a short term thing. But since the support, sell, or reversal level for the bigger move is way below, there is some room for a short-term move down. Note that the price level 1454 is not a whole lot above where we are now. So, no sense to go long, we'll just move up a bit and flatline or something until mid-next week -g-