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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: neolib who wrote (226490)4/8/2007 9:56:19 PM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
Excellent observation. The problem for you is that global warming fits most of the data, whereas you are left looking for anomalies. That is the point you just cannot understand

I understand perfectly well that we are in a warming trend. We have been in one since 1750. What I don't believe is that the climate models "are working quite well".

If they were working so well, we wouldn't keep seeing such radical changes every few years, or sea level changes more than 50% off the model predictions, etc, etc.

Once again, the models are modelling greenhouse effects. They are not modelling the whole climate and they can't. But the greenhouse effect in nature does not operate independently of the rest of the climate, so the models are acutely dependent on their parameterization, and have not been independently verified.

Since climate is non-linear and chaotic, I doubt it can be modelled. Does anyone claim he can predict butterfly effects? And that is based on my knowledge of the non-intuitive nature of chaotic systems. Saying the "trend is clear" assumes a linear system, which climate just ain't.

Now maybe global warming will happen just as many think. But maybe not. The science isn't there yet. So keep studying, and take precautions that make sense anyway, but don't bankrupt yourself to take precautions that may turn out to be perfectly useless.

As for Al Gore and the MSM reporting, it runs far beyond the facts as a matter of course, and generally should make anyone's bs meters ring long and loud. I know a mass hysteria when I see one.



To: neolib who wrote (226490)4/9/2007 6:59:51 AM
From: Wharf Rat  Respond to of 281500
 
They never advance any successful counter theories

Oh, oh...the galaxy is slowing down, so there is a decrease in the cosmic wind chill effect. The temperature hasn't really changed; it just feels like it. You have to correct for the effect of decreasing gravity on thermometers, too, cuz it skews them something awful.