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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: $Mogul who wrote (75204)	4/11/2007 9:17:52 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

"The US will try to regain some manufacturing power that will hopefully stimulate the economy for the next generation." Unfortunately, almost none is left (10% of the economy, down from 20% of the economy in 2000). In case of rapid fall of the dollar manufacturing won't prosper; it is much easier to make money on inflation during hyperinflation cycle than it is by actually producing something. Thanks to the Fed, the whole country has been engaged in asset speculation instead of production. More of the same happens during hyperinflation. Manufacturing then is completely brought to a halt. CEOs of these companies are engaged in speculation in raw materials and finished goods instead, cause it's a lot easier. So, it all depends. If the dollar really dives off the cliff, manufacturing will die before it is reborn. The whole country is brought to a halt, and goes to the poorhouse. While assets continue to appreciate in nominal dollar terms, they will drop enormously in real terms. Is 1000,000 DOW really good, if a loaf of bread costs $1000,000? We are now getting into chronic inflation zone (10% a year inflation, CPI lies subtracted), which is sure to accelerate dramatically if the dollar crisis hits. Returns on all assets are significantly below this real inflation. The Fed behaves like John Law, so it will end up like John Law - the dollar will be worthless. So, why did they remove M3 printing report in March 2006, if they are such brave inflation fighters?

To: $Mogul who wrote (75204)	2/4/2008 10:32:35 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

<<When the Dems get back in power you will see lots of TARRIFS on Chinese imports, so much that it will discourage American business to manufacture there from a tax point of view., The US will try to regain some manufacturing power that will hopefully stimualte the economy for the next generation.>> The climbing danger now is that around the world, politicians in a panic will really start to interfere with global trade and with export tariffs on commodities designed to keep wanted commodities at home. Russia has already done this. Export and import tariffs were one of the signal features of the Great Depression of the 1930s, as were competitive currency devaluations, followed not much later by export subsidies put in place to undercut the import tariffs and duties of other counties. The result was a global tangle of trade restrictions in which most nations were forced to live on their own national resources.