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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: neolib who wrote (226778)	4/11/2007 9:58:58 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 281500

PO is based on petroengineering,geology, and physics. Once a field gets around 50% depleted, the production rate falls off, despite adding many more wells. Extraction physics trumps in the long run. Doesn't matter what techniques they use (CO2 or water injection, horizontal pipes, steam injection, whatever), it just won't come out of the ground as fast as it once did. The insidious thing about enhanced recovery technologies is that , when a field crashes, it crashes hard; not the old 2% depletion, but 8 or 15 or even 40 percent less from that field each year. Right now, it's happening in the 4 largest fields in the world; Ghawar, Cantarell, Burgan, Daqinig. There is nothing out there which can come online fast enuf to replace their decreased production. Ultimately, we'll figure out how to extract more from the old fields, but we won't get it out as fast as we once did.

To: neolib who wrote (226778)	4/12/2007 4:43:41 AM
From: Noel de Leon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

"There are two significant ones that peak oil must contend with 1) technology improving recover of existing reserves, and 2) undiscovered reserves. Pointing to past data does not help, since you cannot preclude large scale changes in either one." Oil will be used up to an extent that it is not a viable energy source anymore no matter which technological fix one finds. It's a matter of when, not if. Using logic and past and present data indicates that this will happen within 20 to 40 years. Your bio bacteria will just prolong the agony. Being an optimistic escapist doesn't change this logic.