Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Nokia Corp. (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: waitwatchwander who wrote (4764)	4/12/2007 12:52:08 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9255

CIBC and Piper Jaffray Handset and Wireless IC Forecasts NorthForce, << Eric, There is a CIBC and Piper Jaffray handset forecast buried within this Broadcom submission to the ITC. >> Thanks very much for linking that composite of reports. In my opinion the included CIBC World Markets handset forecast was quite intelligently estimated, and well detailed and backed up. Better than most I've recently seen. I'm personally just a tad more optimistic about 2007 sell-in growth (plus 1 to 3 percentage points) than they are, but they are right now slightly more aggressive than consensus estimates for global sell-in. We are raising our handset forecast as the market shows continued strong end user demand, top handset vendors post record unit shipments, and inventories remain lean in most regions (except noticeable inventories for Motorola in Asia). In general, we've seen all vendors top our unit estimates in 4406, although mix has favored lower priced, volume-oriented handsets. We now project global handset shipments will reach 1.12 billion in 2007, up from our previous estimate of 1.07 billion units, and implying year-over-year (YoY) growth of 14.3%. What is interesting this year, is across the board, estimates of handset sell-in for the upcoming year is less conservative than it has been in recent years, when the major research agencies have raised handset forecasts almost every quarter after each quarters results are in, and typically beginning year growth estimates have been in the 8% to 12% range. One thing I like about the CIBC data is that they are showing sales of Analog handsets (AMPS/TACS/NMT) in 2006 and 2007 as well as TDMA handsets. Some forecasts treat them like they don't exist, but they do, however small. They also break out CDMA sales separately from EV-DO sales, and those estimates look reasonably sound if CDMA for WiLL is included (it's excluded from Gartner's, IDC's and SA'ss numbers. << What % market share of just wcdma handsets (ie 105M in 2006) would you guess that Nokia sold in 2006? 30% doesn't make sense and if their royalty payments are in the neighbourhood of $500m, that would imply they sold around 7.5M wcmda handsets in 2006. Have any numbers here? >> Sticky key on your calculator? <ggg> 30% or actually slightly above makes sense to me, but I don't have any reliable estimate of Nokia UMTS (WCDMA) handset sales for 2006 (or their ASP) and it is not for lack of digging. I'd like to see SA's numbers from which QUALCOMM constructed their frequently shown slide, and GfK's numbers. Personally I think that they sold in somewhere in the range of 31m to 35m units, well short of their 40m objective. I'll take QUALCOMM's 101m number for total WCDMA sell-in over Nokia's view of global WCDMA sales, since QUALCOMM has the royalty book to work from, and CIBC's view of 99,836m units isn't too far off QUALCOMM's. I'm not sure what Nokia paid in royalties or what their ASP was but let's do some math together and you double check me. Let's say Nokia sold-in 33 million WCDMA units in 2006 and the wholesale ASP was $333 USD. That would translate to net sales of $10,989,000,000. That's $329,670,000 in royalties at 3% and $494,505,000 at 4.5% -- that is, if I don't have a sticky calculator key. If Slacker is tuned in, I'd be curious to have him provide his guesses on Nokia sell-in and wholesale ASP in 2006. The component estimates including WCDMA baseband IC share from Piper Jaffray were interesting. I've been looking for some comparable from others as I'd always like to see data points from at least 2 sources, and the more the better. I should add though that PJ's estimates of TI WCDMA baseband share at 51% in 2006 would indicate that estimating Nokia WCDMA handset share in the low to mid- 30's makes absolute sense. Thanks again for the data. I've been meaning to complete a comprehensive overview of the 'Handset Game in 2006' and I'll probably pull some data from the CIBC report to supplement what I've already compiled when I do complete it. It simply matches up very well with what I've already compiled. I'll also probably use the Piper Jaffray baseband IC numbers but am still shopping some others. Best, - Eric -