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Technology Stocks : Nokia Corp. (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (4772)	4/12/2007 11:02:41 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9255

Great notes.... ASP: 4Q’06 $168 to 1Q’07 1Q $155 (down 8% QoQ). ASP decline due to increased sales of VGA/Color models and strong competition in weak seasonality The unit volume was good, but I didnt expect such a dramatic drop in ASP's. Unfortunately, I didnt hear much in the Q&A to clarify the situation....was the "softness" in Western Europe a result of a lack of new models or was it market wide? Did they mark down the Ultra series in response to price cuts by others? I think I have more questions after the call than I had going into the call. Slacker

To: Eric L who wrote (4772)	4/18/2007 11:17:35 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9255

The Handset Game: Preliminary but Updated with Motorola Results Motorola reported this morning and met Q1 expectations although Q2 guidance was below expectations. Motorola said it expects to make 2 or 3 cents a share for the second quarter, as sales will be flat with first-quarter levels. Analysts had been looking for an 8 cents a share profit on sales of $10 billion. Motorola, posted a first-quarter loss of $181 million, or 8 cents a share, compared with a year-ago profit of $686 million, or 27 cents a share. Revenue fell nearly 2 percent to $9.43 billion from $9.61 billion.The latest quarter was hit by 11 cents a share in restructuring and other charges. That puts it in line with the Thomson Financial analysts' consensus estimate, which was calling for a 2 cent profit. • Q1 EPS -0.08 $ (pro forma $0.02) • Q2 estimates similar pro forma results as for Q1 Mobile Devices Segment: • Shipped 45.4 million phones (- • Sales $5.4 billion (-15% from year ago) • Operating loss (pro forma) -$231 million • Market share estimate 17.5% (that would mean ~260 million unit handset market) The single bright spot for the company was its Connected Home Solutions which sold $1.0 billion (+42%) in sales with record quarterly shipments of digital entertainment devices, Mobile phones had an ASP of $119, ~$6 higher than expected. Mobil Phones accounted for 57.4% of Motorola's sales this quarter compared to 66.6% in the year ago quarter. The Motorola Q1 Earnings Release is here ... tinyurl.com Tracking The Handset Game Please note that in the final column of the table below I'm plugging in 265.5 million as the total estimated global sell-in for the quarter which is higher than consensus estimates but lower than Gartner's estimate, and I'm calculating preliminary share estimates on that number. Sales and share data for Q4'2005 through Q4'2006 is from Strategy Analytics (SA). SA should have preliminary Q1 estimates of global sell-in published by Friday morning after Sony Ericsson reports and I'll recompile the final column shortly after they publish it. Nokia reports tomorrow (Thursday) morning and LG tomorrow evening (Eastern Time in US). Global Mobile Device Sell-In for Last 18 Months Global Sell-In Q4 '05 2005 Q1 '06 Q2 '06 Q3 '06 Q4 '06 2006 Q1 '06 ========= ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== Nokia 83.7m 264.9m 75.1m 78.4m 88.5m 105.5m 347.5m 34.1% 32.4% 33.3% 33.3% 34.5% 35.2% 34.1% --------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ Motorola 44.7m 146.0m 46.1m 51.9m 53.7m 65.7m 217.4m 45.4m 8.2% 17.9% 20.4% 22.1% 21.0% 21.9% 21.3% 17.1% --------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ Samsung 27.2m 102.9m 29.0m 26.3m 30.7m 32.0m 118.0m 34.8m 11.1% 12.6% 12.8% 11.2% 12.0% 10.7% 11.6% 13.1% --------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ SEricsson 16.1m 51.1m 13.3m 15.7m 19.8m 26.0m 74.8m 6.6% 6.3% 5.9% 6.7% 7.7% 8.7% 7.3% --------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ LG 16.2m 54.9m 15.6m 15.3m 16.5m 17.0m 64.4m 6.6% 6.7% 6.9% 6.5% 6.4% 5.7% 6.3% --------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ Others 57.6m 197.2m 46.6m 47.7m 47.0m 53.4m 196.7m 23.5% 24.1% 20.6% 20.3% 18.3% 17.8% 19.3% ========= ====== ====== ====== ====== ------ ------ ------ ------ Total 245.5m 817.0m 225.7m 235.3m 256.2m 299.6m 1,018.8m 265.5m 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% ========= ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ------ ------ ------ Growth YoY 24.9% 20.1% 29.6% 25.7% 21.9% 22.0% 24.7% Key Mobile Device Metrics for Q1 2007 Nokia¹ Motorola Samsung SEricsson LG ========== ========== ========== ========== ========== Revenue (EUR) €4.061 Bil €3.491 Bil Revenue (USD) $5.412 Bil $4.652 Bil Units 45.4m 34.8m Share 17.1% 13.1% ASP (EUR) €89 €116 ASP (USD) $119 $155 Op. Margin -4.8% 13.0% · ¹ Nokia combines 3 divisions sales: Mobile Phones, Multimedia Enterprise Notes: • All currency conversions made at March 30, 2007 Interbank rates. Caveat: • The usual applies. I may have inadvertently made typos, transposition errors, currency conversion errors, or calculation errors in compiling data. If anyone spots one, please advise. • In the 18 month sell-in table, 2006 sales by Other's and total units don't cross hatch with the sum of their respective sales by quarter, and this is probably due to SA adjusting data as the year progressed. ### - Eric -