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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (65119)	4/13/2007 5:21:54 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

wrote recently about a concept called “zero hour” that was initially unveiled by Barry Bannister (who worked for Legg Mason at the time). Essentially, zero hour is defined loosely as the moment at which credit growth no longer has an impact on the real economy. While the US not yet there, I wonder aloud if it is not heading on a course towards zero hour, or as some call it, “the day of reckoning.” I will say this. I do not know when and even if this is to occur. Frankly, for our children’s sake, I hope that it does not. But to blindly ignore the mere possibility of this potential outcome is to be imprudent, particularly with other people’s hard earned capital. If the US does not, as a nation, get its financial house in order (in a short time I may add), then the question becomes not if the US visits zero hour, but when it reaches zero hour. mish, can you elaborate a bit more on what the author means by 'zero hour'....i think i know, but i'm not sure and would like to know precisely what he means when he says credit growth will no longer have an impact on the real economy...

To: mishedlo who wrote (65119)	4/14/2007 12:12:35 AM
From: NOW	Respond to of 116555

Nice MIsh; very nice

To: mishedlo who wrote (65119)	4/14/2007 1:09:45 PM
From: Steve Lokness	Respond to of 116555

From Zero Hour I am a fan of gold and commodities in general and have stated so many times. But the price of commodities or the price of anything is not what determines deflation vs. inflation. My son told me an interesting statistic a few days ago that,...if the entire world lives at the same standard of living as America, that it would take three world's worth of resources to support that standard of living If we go into Zero Hour, will raw resources still be a safe investment? From an investment standpoint, it seems this is the discussion we should be having? Great article Mish! steve

To: mishedlo who wrote (65119)	4/15/2007 4:54:19 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 116555

Mish writes:<<Many say the stock market is forward looking. I disagree. In fact I have proven otherwise (see Leading Economic Indicators). The stock market is a measure of sentiment towards risk. As long as that risk taking continues the stock market can rise. But gains are harder and harder to come by. So hedge funds have resorted to leverage to make up the difference. Mutual funds and hedge funds are also selling options to gain income. This reduces volatilities. Many say the stock market is forward looking. I disagree. In fact I have proven otherwise (see Leading Economic Indicators). The stock market is a measure of sentiment towards risk. As long as that risk taking continues the stock market can rise. But gains are harder and harder to come by. So hedge funds have resorted to leverage to make up the difference. Mutual funds and hedge funds are also selling options to gain income. This reduces volatilities. The whole mess of leverage on leverage works until it doesn't.>> i had i admit been brainwashed into me that the market is forward looking, and does so with veritable "miraculous" accuracy. It became something, i therefore, never brought into question this so-called "law", that is, until i heard Joseph E. Stiglitz rip into to this premise and reduced it to the rubble of MYTH and not fact. Stiglitz suggested if one invested only on the premise The Market predicts the future we would find the markets rising is signaling good times ahead or dropping be signalling bad times ahead, come to learn the market is, under the glare of the light of realities, very often WRONG. i have much respect for Stiglitz and with that started to have an ignorance embedded concept removed from my circuitry:) So i here applaud your bringing in the leverage element.<< The whole mess of leverage on leverage works until it doesn't.>> o my yes.And the point of when it doesn't i gather can be a rude shift, indeed. i wrote this sometime again but it came from the mouth of Greenspan himself, i heard him mumble thru this moment of truth speak about 10 years ago(yes he does, rarely, actually speak candidly:) What he said was is the single most powerful force in the market place is the spending/saving shift. He stated that once a populace moves out of the spend /credit/ don't save 'all is o.k. mode' to the save/avoid debt/ 'i fear the morrow mode', nothing can reverse this shift, it will last at least a decade. i personally think Greenspan has been knowingly fighting this shift and knowing the more he fights it the worst the shift will be when it comes; i suspect he simply does not want to be alive when it happens and all the pidgeons come to roost on the Greenspan Legen Statue andjust remain until his legeng it is encased in what we all know does accumulates so rapidly when the pidgeons comeback to roost:)Max

To: mishedlo who wrote (65119)	4/18/2007 11:15:51 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 116555

mish, this whiskeyandgunpowder.com is hilarious. i have a ms in computer structures, and on average it takes my 72 hours of no sleep to setup my home desktops for either self or wife. i tend to make the repeated mistake of not reading the manual, and accidentally and in frustration erase the packaged operating system (unwanted chinese language version of MS operating system) along with all the drivers (i.e. the HP Pavilion LAN antenna requires its own driver ;0/ ) and such ... then having to go back to the basics and methodically and progressively recover all that went poof through rudimentary internet access via a seriously crippled computer and a networked old relic ... i tend to upgrade PCs when work is not busy ... when there is a deadline, do not mess with the technology i upgrade about every 36 month, and unfortunately, i am due for another upgrade ... i am frightened the apple is looking awfully tempting i bought this gadget sandisk.com in its 4 Gig version, and it, along with my removable ghost drive assures me of always able to be up and running, with Outlook etc intact, and all work files, anywhere any time via any computer.