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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (25858)	4/16/2007 10:31:29 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 207832

HiChief, Cool and boring - mebbe Intc lights it up tomally. Bob

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (25858)	4/17/2007 8:14:43 PM
From: rogermci®	Respond to of 207832

Higher for sure: MARK HULBERT What's the encore? Commentary: From contrarian view, stock prices will continue rising Last Update: 10:55 PM ET Apr 16, 2007 ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- What now? The late February-early March stock market correction has now officially been overcome. The combined value of all publicly traded stocks within the United States is now higher than it was at the stock market's February high. See story Contrarian analysis acquitted itself quite well during the correction, as it turned out. As I reported on the day of what turned out to be the bottom of the correction, after analyzing the sentiment among investment newsletter editors: "What we're seeing is more likely to be a mere correction within an ongoing bull market rather than the beginning of a severe bear market." See March 6 column Fortunately for the bulls, contrarian analysis continues to point to higher stock prices. Consider the latest readings from the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. It closed on Monday at 34.1%. That's an amazing number, when put in historical context. It is barely more than half where the HSNSI stood at the stock market's February high, for example. And it is only modestly higher than where this sentiment benchmark stood at the market's correction low in early March. This means that the editor of the average short-term market timing newsletter has not jumped on the bandwagon of this stock market. On the contrary, he is largely skeptical of the market's advance since the early-March low. His skepticism is creating the veritable wall of worry that bull markets like to climb. To use a different analogy: A bull market can be thought of as a bucking bronco in a rodeo, trying its darndest to throw everyone off its back on the way to the other side of the ring. And it's doing an awfully good job of that: At the stock market's February high, the HSNSI stood at 62.4%, nearly doubly where the HSNSI is currently. In other words, even though the stock market is today back to where it was at the February high, if not a little higher, the editor of the average short-term market timing newsletter is no where close to being as bullish as he was then. According to contrarian analysis, a major stock market top will occur when the prevailing sentiment is stubborn bullishness. The dead giveaway that this is the dominant mood will be the reactions of short-term market timers in the wake of the first correction off of the market's top: He will refuse to reduce his equity exposure, and may even increase it. That's what happened at the top of the stock market in March 2000, by the way. And we're not seeing anything like that kind of stubborn bullishness today.