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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (26587)	4/17/2007 7:58:26 PM
From: fp_scientist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 79156

Re: TX Massive selling today. This is professional money (institutions) heading for the exits. Once burnt, they won't come back in quickly. Selling like today is unusually finished in one day. I now think Chavez may well have the blessing of Kirchner for this move. There was a public disagreement between Rocca (TX majority owner) and the Economy Minister of Argentina. This may well be Kirchner vendetta. He is known for irrational, revengeful behavior. I will run some numbers to see how much TX is worth without Sidor. It is a complicated exercise. I think ~half of their profits come from Sidor. Then add a multiple consistent with international steel valuations... and I think you end up at low 20s. So the bottom may not be far off. After all is done and said, it may be time to get back in at a value price point, but it won't be soon, I think. Before rationality sinks, irrationality may shine.