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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (76303)	4/18/2007 7:54:10 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Just think of the Cramer experience with LEND....that ended well, didn't it?<G> I'll be shorting DSL again eventually, but a lot of this jamjobbing needs to get priced in first.....that graph of the ARM resets tells what the future holds. Oh yeah, and Wachovia's gonna choke on GDW before the end of the year, too. I swear if all this plays out like the last month or so, gold will be at 2000 before the end of the year.

To: orkrious who wrote (76303)	4/18/2007 8:35:43 PM
From: jcole05	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 306849

Nice to hear that the nail is now firmly in the coffin re: my Apr 65 DSL puts. Oh well, I had a small position, and take comfort that I was right that they'd miss their earnings rather badly. I was just wrong about the market reaction. The thing is, my plan is to increase my bet in the near future, either via multiple puts with staggered expirations, or a single larger position in Jan 08 LEAPS. I'm thinking of 15-20K, which for me remains a lot of $$. Maybe it's that I don't live in a frothy real estate market, but I just don't see how everyday people can afford "normal" (i.e. not option ARM) payments on 1,000,000+ houses. I am a physician in training, and will soon see a substantial increase in my income after residency/fellowship. Still, I don't think I could ever afford to buy a house on the West Coast without there first being a substantial correction in housing prices. Are there really enough people with enough income to make their payments when their option ARMs ratchet up? To me, there is a too much discussion about credit scores, and not enough about economic realities. A good credit history doesn't suddenly create the income to buy a million dollar house once true, not negative, amortization is in effect. What will these people do? Yes, if the market starts upward again, they can refinance or sell. But if the market is stagnant to down, I see a lot of families who are f***ed. And once foreclosure starts, I could certainly foresee an ugly spiral in housing prices. Can people here chime in with a bullish case for DSL? All I see is a company extremely leveraged into option ARMs with a boatload of negative amortization on the books, doing business in a dangerous real estate environment. I'd rather not lose my ass when DSL gets bought out, as Cramer appears to suggest. I'm so strongly biased on this issue I'm afraid I'm losing perspective as to the other side of the story. Although I rarely post, I've always found SI to be the best forum for intelligent investors to communicate. Thanks for any insight anyone can provide.

To: orkrious who wrote (76303)	4/18/2007 10:50:52 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

why not leave the financials and short the actual homebuilders? The financials were slammed on the subprime scare in the last month and once one of those occurs, justified or not, its tough to short after that.

To: orkrious who wrote (76303)	4/18/2007 11:23:39 PM
From: TH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

ork, Cramer! I have not covered DSL and I won't on a Cramer spike. How do the funds get out of DSL? Cramer can help <g>. Japan down 1.4% now and Shanghai down 2.5%. I think we are very near a major top. Get options out of the way, and next week could be good for bears. I wonder if the general index jam job is an attempt to keep foreign funds in the game as the dollar weakness negates any real return for international investors. My personal guess is that if and when the dollar breaches major support this <weak dollar is good for equities> bs ends. GT TH