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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bentway who wrote (228209)	4/22/2007 9:43:19 PM
From: epicure	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Interestingly, that poll Nadine mentioned has some fascinating data wrt the numbers being killed. hotair.com "The most shocking result? Fully 26% of the people surveyed said they’d had a family member or relative murdered within the past three years. I wonder what a statistician could do with that number re: estimating a total post-invasion death toll. It sounds like it’d be big — Lancet-level big — but it’s hard to gauge total “families” from total population. Population is roughly 26 million; make it 24 million for easy calculation. Assume an average of 12 relatives per family for a total of 2 million families, and assume further that one person from every fourth family is murdered. Total murdered: 500,000. Increase the average to 24 relatives per family and it drops to 250,000. The problem is, “relative” could mean a lot of things given the tribal organization of Arab culture; the average “family” might be 50 members. Plus, there’s bound to be overlap where survey respondents have family members in common and they’re all identifying the same murder victim. I dunno. Any statisticians out there want to try?"