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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robohogs who wrote (23519)	4/23/2007 11:48:29 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

Someone thinks news is coming in next 4 weeks I don't know of any publicly-disclosed basis for that view. Could be some sort of rumor from the FDA I suppose. Merger seems very unlikely - Novartis is obvious candidate, and there are issues surrounding inside information (like communications received from the FDA) that make that seem very unlikely indeed. There is still a fairly hefty implied volatility premium of the puts over the calls at some maturities, perhaps suggesting some sort of short squeeze. All-in-all the implied volatility surface makes no sense to me here. Why the spike in May vols? Why is the put premium higher for longer-dated contracts? Peter

To: Robohogs who wrote (23519)	4/24/2007 4:52:31 AM
From: Robohogs	Respond to of 52153

As a follow up to my 2 notes yesterday on MNTA vol, the numbers came in about 15% more (were 130% last week, 120% on Friday and now down to 106% vs. 96% a week ago) but still some room to come in a bit. The vols are a bit high across all months. Jon