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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Short Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lokness who wrote (825)	4/23/2007 1:28:05 PM
From: tuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 897

No that I'm aware of. You'd just have to short one of the bioETFs or buy puts/sell calls on one. The powershares biotech ETF options are a bit thinly traded, which is too bad, because it is not so heavy in big bios. To play with the others -- BBH, IBB involves betting on Amgen's near term fate wrt to CERA PDUFA date and ODAC meeting, both ~ May 15th. Got to admit, one of the safer plays may be to sell calls on the powershares (PBE). I'm also considering ALNY. There is PI RSV data due shortly though, which will likely be positive, and the company may call it "proof of concept." Doubt that last, though, as they've said in December that proof of concept would be demonstrated in 12 to 18 months, implying that they'll wait for positive PII data before crowing about that. So perhaps the best thing is to wait for the PI data, and then short. As solid an RNAi company as there is, but overvalued, IMO. Other targets . . . NBIX over $14. TELK above $6.35. Maybe NRMX with a bear spread to mitigate the volatility (but I haven't checked on the viability of that). Maybe even ARNA for a few months (the first serious safety peek won't come until early fall), as I don't see news drivers, unless one believes the insomnia program is worth something. Unless I'm forgetting something about the Ortho program. Anyone else with ideas? Cheers, Tuck