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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: orkrious who wrote (81104)4/24/2007 1:36:32 PM
From: Perspective  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
This is why I remain skeptical about gold strength/dollar weakness going forward:

<huge speculator net long position in COMEX gold futures, especially as it coincides with DXY hugging multi-decade support levels (note in this context that the biggest component of DXY is the Euro with an almost 60% weight, and specs are extended in the Euro as well).>

It's good to remember that support levels are, well, supportive.

And China is just nuts right now. Have you seen some of the charts I posted off Yahoo China?

Message 23485910

Just flipping the page down key quickly shows you how nuts it has become, especially in the past four months or so. I wouldn't want to be long anything with a link to China at this point.

BC



To: orkrious who wrote (81104)4/24/2007 1:38:19 PM
From: Perspective  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
<stock market has ceased to be a leading indicator years ago - since 2000 it has behaved more like a lagging indicator actually. there have been periods in history when this was also the case, none of which had a happy outcome for speculators.>

Anybody familiar with any examples of this he refers to?

BC



To: orkrious who wrote (81104)4/24/2007 5:23:03 PM
From: Perspective  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
NDX doubled in about six months during its blowoff top:

stockcharts.com

Of course, it capped a five-year 10-fold run, compared to less than that on the part of Shanghai:

finance.yahoo.com

Shanghai has roughly doubled over the same time course:

stockcharts.com

I actually have a 16-year chart of Shanghai, but I can't figure out how to post it these days.

One day we will wake up to find lots of pain here:

Message 23485910

BC