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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (81157)	4/25/2007 3:50:29 PM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 110194

<@Spain's housing bubble -- trotsky, 13:07:09 04/25/07 Wed the Spanish housing bubble (which is huge even by the standards known elsewhere - construction provides 20% of all jobs in Spain) is apparently the first euroland housing bubble on the edge of deflation. this means that the bursting of the US housing bubble is now spreading elsewhere - imo it will eventually infect the whole world. there is probably a threshold point at which the fact that subsets of the greater global credit bubble are coming unstuck will lead to an unwinding of the entire enchilada. various credit markets and financial asset markets are all interdependent and intertwined - if too many sectors lose their ephemeral 'liquidity' at once, a massive and sudden unraveling of the malinvestment orgy could follow. this will put the 'Asian decoupling' storyline to a severe test - imo it's not going to work that way - once consumers in the developed countries retrench, it'll be all over for a while. the main reason is that the credit bubbles in the surplus countries are fed by the trade deficits of the deficit countries (chiefly the US) , and without this enabler of money supply growth the credit induced booms will end everywhere.> I'm starting to look into playing the decline in the Spanish bubble. Anybody got any suggestions? It doesn't appear IB lets you short any Spanish securities directly. BC

To: orkrious who wrote (81157)	4/25/2007 4:15:59 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<rant on>Well, another day, another explosion upward. I'm so sick and tired of watching irresponsible investors get rewarded for paying exorbitant multiples of earnings and cash flow, hearing about all the BS private equity deals, and watching the emerging markets go up every fricken day. I guess I'm just stupid for thinking that reality will ever matter ever again, or that any central bank will ever give a sht about the asset bubbles in progress. Stupid for expecting there to ever be another bear market, and that it might have something to do with the collapse of the housing bubble that rescued the stock market bubble and cranked up the money supply in China. I keep trying to maintain some short exposure, because the rational part of me says that the hyperreality must end at some point, but I can't believe - I'm just STUNNED - at how long it manages to go on. The emerging markets are clearly* in a bubble blowoff now. What the hell are the central bankers waiting for? Do they think it's better to just stand idly by and see how big it will become? No, actually they're not standing idly by even. They're encouraging it, feeding it, every single day, buying dollars and dollar-denominated securities, shoving huge amounts of Yuan into the local economy. When is this crap all going to end? I just want an environment where I can earn a decent (high-single digit?) return after inflation without having to drink the kool-aid and depend upon the mass stupidity in progress. Jesus - how quickly we forgot the Nasdaq bubble... Is it EVER going to end?!? I thought I would pull my hair out before the 2000 bubble finally popped, but this is even worse. <rant off> BC