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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quehubo who wrote (83731)	4/28/2007 4:15:02 PM
From: 1coolpiglet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206338

According to the EIA, last year saw about 300bcf of demand destruction from the Hurricane aftermath, so withdrawals were well below trend based on HDDs. This year was right on the 5-year trend for given HDDs. So it may be that comparisons to last year seem more bullish than they really are. The market just seems very balanced in the price band of $6-8, at this time. Imagine a cold winter though. It was just the 02/03 season that resulted in a withdrawal of 2.5tcf from storage. That was with HDDs of 3700 compared to 3334 this season. But 3700 is only marginally higher than the 30-year average of 3578. although warmer winters may be a new trend, Feb. of this year proved that cold is not impossible. a 30-YEAR normal winter would generate withdrawals of around 2325bcf (EIA). With a fall storage of even 3500 that would take us down to 1175.