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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (83748)	4/29/2007 4:49:29 PM
From: Tony Starks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206329

Taleb wrote a book on the subject (actually, two). I remember reading one of your posts a while back (a heated discussion with Dabum3, as I recall) where you essentially attributed your market winnings to dumb luck and I thought, "Sounds like a page out of Fooled by Randomness." I'm looking forward to reading Black Swan. I've got a hold on it at the local library, waiting for it to arrive.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (83748)	4/29/2007 7:28:32 PM
From: Umunhum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206329

I couldn’t agree more with your post. I especially liked this part and admit that I am guilty of these actions although I have never had to liquidate anything: the main thing i don't like about leverage (other than the free opportunity to lose all my money) is that it encourages momentum investing. when energy prices are high and one should be turning defensive, one has more rope to hang oneself with. once energy prices decline rapidly and it would be profitable to put on more positions, the leveraged trader has no excess capital and has to defend his positions by liquidating other assets (selling into weakness). We differ in the amount of risk that we are willing to take. I believe cash is a risk because I think peak oil is going to end the dollar hegemony. And so I believe US bonds are about the worst investment that you can make. There has to come a time when you can logically deduce that we have hit peak oil and I believe that time has passed. Here is the lastest EIA monthly report: eia.doe.gov We still haven’t exceeded May 05’s production despite a significant rise in crude prices: futuresource.com In fact it looks like we are on that undulating plateau that I read would happen right around peak oil. Now the Dan Yergins and CERAs of the world are going to say that the rise in crude price will bring forth more production but there is a 4-6 year lead time for these projects. The reality is that we have been discovering less oil than we’ve been producing since 1985. Where is all this new oil going to come from? Is it going to be enough to offset the Ghawar, Burgan, Cantarell, and The North Sea? Can production grow 1.5 million barrels a year to satiate the demand growth. It certainly hasn't the last few years! Also keep in mind that Peak Oil and demand exceeding supply are two different things. I still believe crude oil futures present the best risk reward opportunity in a past peak oil world.