Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tom pope who wrote (83800)	5/1/2007 2:12:36 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206330

>>> I'm don't want to appear to be trying to flatter you, but if you kept most of your 1999-2000 gains, something more than luck was at work. <<< Maybe not. It just depends on the circumstances. If one's portfolio got to the point where they decided it was large enough for their needs, and they didn't need to take the higher risk of being fully invested, and they went to mostly cash, then perhaps they were lucky in their timing. Some people do enjoy short term success from time to time in spite of themselves. If they didn't lose their gains by staying invested, and still profited, then I would be impressed and would want to know what they did.

To: tom pope who wrote (83800)	5/1/2007 4:31:55 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 206330

but if you kept most of your 1999-2000 gains, something more than luck was at work i am pretty sure it was luck -g-. although, if you were religious you could call it a guardian angel or something. what keeps Mr. Magoo from falling off a cliff or getting hit by a car? it's the same force at work. in any case, it was not due to a skill that i could hope to replicate in this lifetime. to make a long story short, before 1999 i was a frustrated value investor. in early 1999 i decided to become an irrational clown, and it was the perfect time to do that. my exit in 2000 from tech stocks was far from perfectly executed, but despite some flesh wounds i had a tremendous amount of luck on some big bets that year. the main thing was that i had something to fall back on--value investing, Grant's, Graham and Dodd-type outlook. so i cut the tech ties very cleanly between August and October 2000. by Jan 01 i was 100% in Longleaf mutual funds, about as far from tech stocks as you can get. i knew a lot of people who gave back big tech gains from that period, and i think many didn't have any other frame of investment reference. on the other hand, most of those who did realize the tech boom was idiotic missed the upside as well as the downside. so i was very lucky to be a clown in absolutely the best year of the entire 20th century to be a clown (1999). but i was also lucky to stop being a clown before the casino took the money back. my gains since then have mainly been due to being in the right sector (energy) since 2003. they are much more modest percentagewise due to lack of leverage and generally a 50/50 equity/fixed mix.