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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (63779)	5/1/2007 5:01:40 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213177

the total cell phone market is 200 million handsets per quarter. That was a few years ago. Probably much higher now. Here's a pretty good article on mkt share but from a few years ago. The top five vendors according to market share are Nokia (32 per cent), Motorola (18.6 per cent), Samsung (27 per cent), LG (15.5 per cent) and Sony Ericsson (13.8 per cent). "Last year, quarterly mobile phone shipments didn't reach 200 million units until the end of the fourth quarter when vendors were keeping the channels' shelves stocked for the holiday rush. As vendors announced new products earlier this year and accelerated their time to market, we've already reached this milestone," said Ramon Llamas, research analyst for IDC's mobile devices team. efytimes.com

To: slacker711 who wrote (63779)	5/1/2007 5:06:05 PM
From: Curt Whitaker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213177

Good catch. Since I haven't yet factored the numbers into my financial model (only looking at Q3 right now), I couldn't pull the number from there so easily - forgot to multiply the number I posted (quarterly) by 4 to get an annual number. Anyway... use $5 then and you still get a huge number. AAPL will provide much more than RIMM provides in time, and I think Jobs has sold AT&T on the vision. The iPhone could be very data intensive and hence profitable for AT&T as well, all depends on the pricing plans - I've heard that they'll try and get people into unlimited data plans. The iPhone could re-invent cell-based web surfing - it's a joke on current phones but the demo for the full browser looks promising - again, more data traffic. The other reason I use $7 is that Shawn Wu - one of 2 analysts that have a clue about AAPL, is estimating 10%, and at a ballpark voice/data plan of $70 you get $7. I do think AT&T is willing to pay that amount because of the number of customers they're about to get - and very loyal (AAPL) customers at that. I think AAPL will then, in exchange, share related revenue from the iPhone related iTunes revenue (ringtones, answer tones, etc.) - seems fair and probably a reciprocal 10% if Shawn Wu is correct. I don't think RIMM has anything to offer in that regard. Part of building a financial model for a company involves some guessing, but you get the point that this will be a significant revenue/cash/profit stream for AAPL.