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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (83880)	5/1/2007 6:11:54 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206334

Can Templeton and Buffet beat this? Mr. Ed Seykota himself has put together a money management track record with returns of roughly +60% net of fees over the three-decade span of his trading career... Futures Magazine BTW, he's not a value investor. He's one of the original Turtle Traders who were taught to buy break outs. He's also one of the original Market Wizards. >>> Trading as a Trend Follower, Ed Seykota turned $5,000 into $15,000,000 over a 12 year time period in his model account - an actual client account. <<< turtletrader.com

To: Tommaso who wrote (83880)	5/1/2007 11:44:17 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 206334

Ah ha, you may have me there, Tomasso. I argue that we can't identify who will beat the market in advance. You mention Buffett's long-term record as a person who can beat the market. The bottom line is this: I am on the Buffett thread posting that I am buying every stock he has bought (once the media announces his purchases), if I can get his price or better. That makes no sense if I really believe the probability of his success with the current pick is irrelevant to what has happened in past (his past successes). So I must not be acting in the way I should be concluding. (Unless I see Mr. Buffett as an anamaly.) It's perhaps a psychological thing for me. Say you're at a perfectly fair roulette table. The ball falls red 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 times in a row. You KNOW the table/machine/casino is fair. You want to bet. Do you say, "Ridiculous, black MUST show. I will bet black. It is due." My mindset is this: I go with the winner: So I want to bet red. Just a proclivity. Chance of red next roll is 50/50 still. Just like black. (If table is fair, and ignoring 00, the house advantage number.) If you are arguing that Buffett beats the market, and might do so in future, then shouldn't it be YOU who would be on the Buffett thread acknowledging your buys of his picks? -g- Oh well. Too much logic for me to ponder. (I like it when my and Mr. Buffett's stocks go up over $100/sh. and stay there. PTR of 2002-2003. Yes!!)