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To: ms.smartest.person who wrote (2409)5/4/2007 10:12:52 PM
From: ms.smartest.person  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 3198
 
&#8362 David Pescod's Late Edition May 2, 2007

OILEXCO INC. (T-OIL) $9.45 +0.55

If you want to start a fight in a bar for oil and gas analysts, just mention Oilexco and I’m sure the fight is on. As an example, just a few weeks ago UBS Securities started a look at Oilexco and the best they could do was a ‘neutral’ on the stock with a target of $10.00. Today Martin Molyneaux of First Energy takes a look at this company in a 24-page report and suggests it’s a ‘buy’ with a $14.00 target.

We’ve been following Fred Kozak now with Canaccord Capital on this story for some time and so far he’s been right. But we should also mention there are lots of analysts that simply don’t want to cover this stock because of their concerns. Right about now, the bullish case is that any day (and we’ve been hearing this for many, many weeks) production will start and those production numbers could be huge. Anywhere between 30,000 and 40,000 barrels a day. That’s tons of cash flow and the bullish case.

The negative case and the reason why analysts are either neutral or don’t even want to cover it, is for months now, we’ve seen costs building, debt growing, the British government (although still offering a good place to make a dollar) tax royalties and the like aren’t without an owie!

The battle between the analysts continue and so far, the bulls have carried the day and since we’ve been covering it, it’s getting close to a four-bagger…

But we should also mention that we are not going to be afraid to sell too soon instead of too late and hope to find the next Oilexco.

OSISKO EXPLORATIONS (V-OSK) $10.84 +0.19
SEMAFO INC. (T-SMF) $ 1.95 +0.01


This past weekend was the get together for 300 of Canaccord’s top brokers in a great place to have get togethers... Las Vegas!

One of the speakers that we find most informative was Kevin McLean, the former RBC mining analyst, who now runs some of the Sentry Select Funds and my goodness, is he doing a job. His Sentry Select Mining Opportunities is up 45% over the last year, which ain’t bad at all.

Top Canaccord broker for last year, Peter Chandler of Waterloo suggests he prefers the duck hunting approach to finding mining stocks where you find a great manager of money and let him go forth and do what he can do rather than the moose-shooting theory where you are out with a rifle trying to hit the one big game yourself. Glen Milne, a member of Canaccord’s Chairman’s Club for almost forever suggests Kevin McLean is one of the
smartest guys on Bay Street.

Either way, his performance over the last year has been spectacular and one wonders what he can do for the next year… He’s certainly giving Eric Sprott, the name traditionally associated with good performance on Bay Street, a run for his money.

We have an interview running in a couple of days with Kevin as he looks at the mining sector and what he expects next, particularly which commodities he likes or doesn’t. But one thing he’s has done very well at is predicting which companies will be bought out next. He has a current list of six or seven companies that he expects and that’s why Osisko Explorations is currently his number one pick.

We suggest people are also going to be intrigued by his third pick...

RIO NARCEA GOLD (T-RNG) $5.43 +0.26

One of the more intriguing comments Kevin McLean makes about this ongoing commodity boom, is that even the people who run some of the more significant mining operations, don’t seem to be believers in these high mineral prices lasting for forever.

He points to some of the takeovers being agreed to by some companies of late and suggests that maybe these company management teams are selling too soon and too cheap and not believers in the possibility of this boom lasting for many years.

One of the companies that he uses as an example is Rio Narcea Gold, currently being taken over by Lundin Mining (LUN), or at least the Lundin’s are currently trying to take it over. McLean suggests people should hold up for a better price from either the Lundin’s or someone else.

Market activity in Rio Narcea today suggests that he is not the only one with this thought.


If you would like to receive the Late Edition, email Debbie at debbie_lewis@canaccord.com