Experts and officials from more than 100 nations urge an 'energy revolution'
By Seth Mydans and Andrew C. Revkin
Friday, May 4, 2007
BANGKOK: The world's established and emerging powers will need to divert substantially from their current main energy sources within a few decades to limit centuries of rising temperatures and seas driven by the buildup of heat-trapping emissions in the air, the top body studying climate change concluded Friday.
In an all-night session capping four days of talks, economists, scientists, and government officials from more than 100 countries agreed in Bangkok on the last sections of a report outlining ways to limit such emissions, led by carbon dioxide, an unavoidable byproduct of burning coal and oil.
The final report, from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said that the prompt slowing of emissions could set the stage later in the century for the stabilization of the concentration of carbon dioxide, which, at 380 parts per million now, has risen more than a third since the start of the Industrial Revolution and could easily double from the pre-industrial level within decades.
The report concluded that significant progress toward that goal could be made in the next 25 years with known technologies and policy shifts, setting the stage for what would have to be a century-long transition to energy sources that come with no climate impacts.
Several authors said its message was clear.
"We can no longer make the excuse that we need to wait for more science or the excuse that we need to wait for more technologies and policy knowledge," said Adil Najam, an author of one chapter and an associate professor of international negotiation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University near Boston. "To me the big message," he said, "is that we now have both and we do not need to wait any longer."
Hans Verlome of WWF International, who observed the process in Bangkok, said that in the report, "scientists were able in a very level-headed way to explain to policy makers the fundamental message that the clean technology is available to solve these problems and to do so at very low cost to our economies."
At a news conference concluding the talks, the chairman of the climate change panel, Rajendra Pachauri, said a key to success would be the workings of the democratic process as the public put pressure on governments to act.
"I don't think you can ignore what the world is coming to understand as the implications of inaction," he said.
The report also made clear the risks of delay, noting that emissions of greenhouse gases have risen 70 percent just since 1970 and could rise 90 percent more by 2030 if nothing is done.
Carbon dioxide is particularly important not only because so much is produced each year - about 25 billion tons - but because much of it persists in the atmosphere, building up like unpaid credit card debt.
To stop the rise, the report's authors said, countries would need to expand the adoption of existing policies that can cut emissions - like a fuel tax or the binding limits set by the Kyoto Protocol - while also bolstering research seeking new large-scale energy options. This work would include pushing for advances in solar and nuclear power.
The meeting ended just after dawn Friday with several authors of the report saying there had been relatively little last-minute fighting with government officials over details. Governments have the power to demand changes in some report language.
China, the United States, Saudi Arabia and some European countries had been tussling over various sections. Countries whose economic prospects are tied to fossil fuels were eager to play down language showing the need to swiftly move away from such energy sources.
U.S. officials also complained that the report did not adequately describe the need for enormous advances in energy technologies, no matter what happens in the short term because of a carbon tax or cap.
Some European officials and scientists pressed to amplify statements implying that the costs of aggressive emissions cuts were modest.
Bill Hare, a Greenpeace adviser and a co-author of the report, said he was pleased with the way the delegations had worked together to seek a consensus.
"Nearly everyone was constructive, as were China, India, Brazil, as were the European countries," he said. "So in spite of the fact that China had some quite worrying positions, they showed a great deal of flexibility and courage in terms of putting aside those concerns that they had in order to achieve a better outcome for the whole."
The report estimates that bringing global carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 to levels measured in 2000 would require a cost on released carbon dioxide of $50 to $100 a ton, roughly on par - in terms of fossil fuel prices - with an additional 50 cents to $1.00 for a gallon of gasoline.
The report projects that this shift might cause a small blunting of global economic activity, resulting in an overall reduction of perhaps one tenth of a percentage point a year through 2100 in the world's total economic activity, the authors said.
Some of the experts and government officials involved in the final discussions said in interviews and e-mail messages that the costs could be substantially greater than that, adding that the report used very rosy assumptions.
But a variety of participants, including some from the U.S. government, said in interviews that it was hard to argue against such an investment given the potential costs of inaction.
This is the third report this year from the climate panel, which was formed under the auspices of the United Nations in 1988 to brief countries periodically on risks from human and natural changes in climate and options for limiting dangers.
In February, one team of experts concluded with near certainty that most warming since 1950 had been driven by the rising concentrations in the atmosphere of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
A second working group reported last month that the warming trend was already measurably shifting weather, water and ecological patterns and that hundreds of millions of people would face risks by the middle of the century, ranging from lost water supplies to inundated coasts, should trends persist.
The latest report focuses on strategies and costs for cutting the emissions of warming gases.
William Moomaw, a lead author of a chapter on energy options and a professor of international environmental policy at Tufts University, said he saw evidence, in the United States and other countries, that big cuts could happen.
As evidence, he pointed to expanding requirements by states that utilities derive growing amounts of power from wind or other renewable sources; rapid improvements in energy efficiency for new homes and large buildings; Europe's recent commitment to cutting emissions beyond existing targets; and promising statements from China about policy shifts.
"Here in early years of the 21st century we're looking for an energy revolution that's as comprehensive as the one that occurred at beginning of the 20th century, when we went from gaslight and horse-drawn carriages to light bulbs and automobiles," Moomaw said. "In 1905, only 3 percent of homes had electricity. Right now, 3 percent is about the same range as the amount of renewable energy we have today. None of us can predict the future any more than we could in 1905, but that suggests to me it may not be impossible to make that kind of revolution again."
European officials have said the climate panel's reports will be stressed when climate policy comes up at the next meeting of the Group of 8 industrialized powers, which takes place next month.
The panel's report on emissions options is also expected to play a role in shaping the next round of talks seeking new binding emissions restrictions after those set under the Kyoto treaty end in 2012. Those talks are scheduled to take place in Bali, Indonesia, in December.
Andrew C. Revkin reported from New York. |
