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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (81476)	5/4/2007 10:15:13 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

in Orange County, Calif. over one-third of the employed workers at year end 2006 were in real estate-related market positions. Someone just PMd me. I'd guess Kass is wrong and he's referring to job growth since 2001.

To: orkrious who wrote (81476)	5/4/2007 10:46:51 AM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 110194

Last week's Barron's included: Marc Heilweil, founder of Atlanta-based Spectrum Advisory, which tends about $380 million, says some credit calamity is apt to occur in the next 12 months, which will take the market south. He puts 50/50 odds on a 30% selloff that would leave the blue chips black and blue -- and trading at 10,000 -- by June. Credit is too easy, he charges. Spread compression, or the narrowing gap between yields on risk-free Treasuries and other credit-market instruments, means lenders aren't able to get sufficient compensation for the risks they are taking. "I'm a student of history, and anytime risk gets mispriced as it is today, someone pays," says Heilweil. "We're in the most unregulated credit market since the Great Depression, with layers of leverage we can't assess, much of it not in the hands of traditional bankers."

To: orkrious who wrote (81476)	5/4/2007 10:59:38 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

More cheerful doominess: In his last letter dated May 1 (snail mailed Allmon still has not extended diplomatic recognition to the Internet) he wrote: "Cash feels might cozy as we wait for another shoe to drop. Anyone who feels queasy or uncomfortable with volatile markets should step off the down elevator now. Sure, you may be jerked skywards for a spell. But fast down elevators generally make few stops." Allmon generally offers a few cheerful reasons why the End Is Nigh. In his last issue, he observed that "a dependable barometer, mutual fund cash, currently around 3.8%, close to the all time low. It requires big money to put the market up ... an ominous trend indeed!" He also notes that, according to an oil forecast he is about to unveil, "We're probably looking at $20 per gallon gasoline, and oil at $300 per barrel in 2020. The coming jolt in the price of oil may wreak even more havoc than the oil embargo of the 1970s, a most unpleasant experience." And he repeats his long-held view that "it would not surprise me at all if gold again crossed the Dow."