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Technology Stocks : Covad Communications - COVD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andre Williamson who wrote (10455)	5/7/2007 8:03:59 PM
From: ead10	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10485

Actually they will add about 8+ million to the bottom line line this upcoming quarter, I believe. I suspect as well that they will also be cash flow positive. How? The 6.8 million paid out to the employees as 2006 incentive awards, paid out of 1Q07 earnings (I am very angry about this, and I think perhaps Mr. Dunn was too) (If this "incentive" had been paid out 4Q06 then they would not have made the numbers that justified the "incentives") will not be copied, at least in the 2nd quarter. Gives an automatic boost to earnings by that much. I also think that some of the revenue will start kicking in from LPV, VoIP, Hosted PBXs. In fact I suspect that this big earnings upside surprise was planned right from the start (as well as the bad earnings surprise of a couple weeks ago) and that the stock will be running up strong and fast starting after the next CC. I rate the company a buy. I rate the management and BOD a strong sell! My opinion, long and watching 5.5 years.

To: Andre Williamson who wrote (10455)	5/11/2007 1:15:38 AM
From: rjk01	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10485

an answer to your Q from the yahoo board Covad's stock hovered around the 1.20 level when, suddenly, it tanked for reasons management could not explain. No one else could. I think a level of 1.20 was about what could be considered a reasonable value based on trends. I would argue that the collapse to the 60 cent level was unusual and inexplicable - not to use the word "irrational". The news was that they signed with ELNK, that they bought NextWeb and that they would sign 3 more LPV contracts before the end of the year. It was Covad's management that made these statements. In addition, ELNK was projecting impressive market penetration with LPV. Based on this, there was nothing irrational in the run-up to the 2.50 level (forget the momentary spike above) from the reasonable valuation of 1.20 before the news. Now they would like to disown the news and forecasts they put out at the time, and claim that in the present context the run-up was irrational. The present context is a complete failure to deliver on forecasts. Now, what is irrational?