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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimbaBear who wrote (81549)	5/7/2007 6:22:20 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 110194

nice question. hopefully he can find a non rigged number set to use (bls is not one of them) <ng> <g>

To: TimbaBear who wrote (81549)	5/7/2007 7:49:40 PM
From: bart13	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Would it be a reasonable hypothesis to suggest that if consumer spending was not rising at the same pace as consumer borrowing , that this may point to an overburdened consumer financing day-to-day expenses? Do you have anything that compares consumer spending to borrowing?.....Like kind to like kind.....say credit card to non-durable spending or something like that.... Sorry, I don't track durables or anything similar. I already track over 400 items and it's just me. My sense is that there sure are more than a few over burdened consumers. especially given that the annual change rate of consumer credit has just broken out above the highs since early 2003 and is likely on the same trend as started in late 2000. In other words, I agree on your hypothesis, although it could also could (in addition) be consumers "keeping up with the Joneses".

To: TimbaBear who wrote (81549)	5/7/2007 9:19:27 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

If tapped out consumers that have maxed out their credit cards is a major problem it should show up in charts of the likes of JP Morgan Chase, Bank America and Capital One. Banking Index slow to rise, still one of the few not to hit new highs during this recent run for the ages .. finance.yahoo.com

To: TimbaBear who wrote (81549)	5/7/2007 10:00:59 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

Re: I saw today that the rate of consumer borrowing went up much more than expected. Last month consumer spending was mediocre, but there was a big increase in credit card debt. So what charges were added to consumer's accounts that failed to result in broader market sales? If what we're seeing is default rate interest charges that are starting to overwhelm borrowers and causing "negative amortization" in Visa and MasterCard accounts, then our economy might have finally hit the wall - hard. I wonder if we're seeing the Wiley Coyote moment... He's run past the edge of the cliff, and is hanging suspended in mid air for just a moment.