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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (81582)	5/8/2007 12:49:03 PM
From: TimbaBear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I always thought the stock market and yield curve were the ultimate clues? Since they are conflicting I look at the Banking Index and Railroads both also in conflict at this point in time. So I'm still confused.. Just zeroing in on the Banking Index using the KISS method<g> I sometimes like to look for confirmation (or negation) of ideas in places where most aren't looking. When looking for whether or not the US consumer is becoming distressed at a faster than normal pace, I am not confident that either the stock market or the yield curve can provide any clarity. There are so many other forces at play in these arenas(foreign investment, carry-trade, hedging, derivatives, central bank interventions, etc) that the state of the consumer would be more difficult to winnow-out than I have the perception to do. By the time I see the banks blow up from bad debt, most of the move will be over. But if consumer borrowing goes up 8%+ while non-durable spending goes up 1.5% then that is suggesting something major to me if indeed it is a trend and not an anomaly. I wondered if the number of Americans without health insurance might provide a clue because the 46 million number I saw recently seemed awful high for an economy with a supposed 4.5% unemployment rate and seniors covered by Medicare and the very poor by Medicaid. Anyway....maybe this stat is not of much use in determining the overall distress levels of US creditors, but it seems like a piece of the puzzle.