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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (63685)	5/15/2007 4:13:49 PM
From: peterk	Respond to of 196989

Courtesy of IronAir from IHUB Posted by: IronAir In reply to: None Date:5/15/2007 1:19:47 PM Post #of 19859 "Nokia Pillages and Plunders" (Street - D. Mock) ... pushing a goal of 40% market share ... All the while complaining that Qualcomm is trying to dictate to the market. Seems fairly obvious that there is a lack of competition in the handset market. Are the regulators going to buy Nokia's story that Qualcomm is a problem ? I would argue that QUALCOMM IS THE SOLUTION. --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Nokia Pillages and Plunders ~ fool.com \| By Dave Mock \| May 15, 2007 -- Finnish wireless phone king Nokia is in the prognosticating mood these days. It has announced an anticipated increase in global market share for mobile phones in the second quarter of 2007. While not citing a specific number, management feels its share of the market should increase from the 36% it projects it held in the first quarter of 2007. Nokia has been dancing on the freshly dug grave set aside for struggling Motorola, which, according to Strategy Analytics, had only an 18% share of the global market, down from 22% the year before. The handset maker has struggled to find the same buzz and sizzle the popular RAZR phone lineup put in its handset business back in 2004. The fall from grace has been so pronounced that management had to fight off uppity shareholder Carl Icahn's quest for a seat on the board of directors. Meanwhile, Nokia is making strides in expanding its share of the growing Chinese market, as evidenced by an expanded partnership with China's largest mobile phone distributor, China Postel. This latest agreement has the company buying $2.5 billion worth of wireless devices from Nokia in 2007. China Postel has already sold more than 37 million Nokia mobile phones, helping the Finnish giant tap a market that signs up roughly 5 million new subscribers a month. Nokia has been pushing a goal of 40% market share for years, but actually lost some share a few years back. The company misread the "thin is in" trend that propped up the RAZR, but also struggled with a lackluster lineup of CDMA phones for carriers such as Sprint Nextel and Verizon. The company's reluctance to sacrifice profitability in order to capture more market share has slowed progress to this goal as well. Beyond the second quarter, a new wild card coming into the handset mix this summer is Apple, which is looking to make a big splash with the iPhone, carried exclusively by AT&T. While the product is currently only slated for release in the U.S., many expect it to eventually make inroads around the globe. What will be even more interesting than Nokia's increased share and the iPhone's entrance, though, is which competitor(s) will suffer at their expense.

To: slacker711 who wrote (63685)	5/15/2007 9:11:32 PM
From: waitwatchwander	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196989

I wasn't paying much attention in 2005 and missed the MSM6225. By the time I started relistening (early 2006), the 6250 was the primary MSM and Telstra was making lots of noise about converting Nortel boomer boxes and pissing all over Nokia for failing to deliver workable UMTS handsets. No doubt, Qualcomm has been delayed in their single chip UMTS solution. I suspect it was related to 45nm challenges and their desire to promote EVDO over UMTS. I always thought Qualcomm supporting both technologies was a foolish approach brought on by their own greed. I wish they would of stuck with EVDO and dealt with all the opposition back in 99 but that's water under the bridge now. I wouldn't be so quick to believe that Qualcomm isn't gaining in the market share game. WCDMA chipset market share seems to be a well guarded secret. Nokia's take on market share includes GSM and Qualcomm's relates strictly to cdma. In my mind, using what is happening in one of these areas to speculate upon what is happening in the other is a bit of stretch. I think folks are just taking advantage of this quiet period to shake a few cages. I don't see much downside to the Qualcomm story, even if Nokia manages to cut a 3% royalty deal. If Nokia is foolish enough not to sign up by the September payment due date, nasty charges are going to start flying their way from many more folks than just Qualcomm. Nokia is going to need great market share to counter the impact of signing and their stock may well have topped earlier than they expected. Nokia's new handsets are impressive ... on paper. However, they still need to be delivered in sufficient quantities and the product features need to be proven out in the marketplace. PR is easy, growing market share profitably is yet another matter. The risk to Qualcomm is that they tend to use QIS mechanics to tweak their QTL and QCT businesses. Those games got quiet around the middle of 2004 but they now seem to be back into swing with rising importance. The problems won't be in QCT but in the buck or so of eps reduction due to such promotional activities. Whatever hit QTL takes due to Nokia will get buried in contractual non disclosures, cdma chipset market share gains and the staggered renewals of the other biggie licencees. It's going to be a noisy uneventful summer. BWDIK