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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (65596)	5/17/2007 12:58:06 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Oh, it's relevant until the alternative can be produced in size at prices equal to or below the current (or future) price of crude. Which is why shale and CTL and ethanol don't matter until crude is much higher. And that is ultimately the significance of peak oil. Supply will always exactly equal demand, only at what price and with what impace on the global economies?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (65596)	5/17/2007 1:27:44 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

So gas prices are the same as 1945. That isn't much of a long term decline <g> I disagree in your assessment, at least for the next twenty years or so, unless humans get really serious about environmental destruction, as in the good old days, and China today. The oil centric universe is overstaying it's welcome because, if it doesn't get burned now, it never will, and there's far too much money to be made in equalizing the cost -- make oil cost as much as solar, etc. But ultimately, if we don't totally screw up the transition and get caught really short on BTUs for a sustained period which would create a severe bottle neck in ramping up alternatives, the long term trend in BTU cost will be down down down. I completely agree with that view, but with a bumpy ride of intervention, manipulation, and periodic shortages during booms and surpluses during busts. But I think we are behind the transition curve and the near term trend for cost is up, which as I notice from your diagram the other day started one year before the war (for gas).