Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Bird's Nest -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (1470)	5/18/2007 1:41:29 PM
From: clutterer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15232

"The best reason why the deficit has been pared so sharply over the last year is the run up in stocks - capital gains taxes. Yes, the government is quite happy with rising prices. As far as I'm concerned, the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) does exist so I believe your complaint of rigging is a fair one." that pretty much sums it up max...would take an earth shattering event to stop the rise imo....i wish i could offer you advice on your position amigo....you know how i feel already and i hate to see you unfairly stuck....i've been finding great shorts but they only last for a day or 2 before the dippers come in....i am more nervous being short than at any time in the past...learned the hard way last fall trying to short and then waiting as it kept going up and up and up while the powder goes down down down....i worked hard to refill those kegs thanks to aapl goog and the q and will not fight "the machine" until i see it broken and then only at a very high tension level....btw welcome back my brother <G>...i am truly sorry for everything said....ps i am thinking about re-dedicating this thread to peace and the efforts to make the dream a reality.....

To: LTK007 who wrote (1470)	5/18/2007 1:57:20 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15232

If your time frame is 1-month, I believe covering the short may be prudent, as there is likely a 2% additional upside going into early June. If your time frame is 2-4 months, I believe holding the short is prudent, as I see about 4% downside from this level over that time frame. If your time frame is the calendar year 2007, I see about 7-9% upside from here, depending on the index, so I believe covering the short would be prudent in that case. If your time frame is until end of 2008, I see us testing the 2006 lows in the end of 2008, or about a 25% haircut from here. In my view, the 2-4 month and 19-month time frames favor remaining short, while the other time frames would favor covering. All in my opinion. You may recall I have also had a long term plan for my employee's funds, and that included remaining long until the end of 2007. We have been long since late last summer after selling in early 2006. That plan says cash or short for about 12 out of 14 months going into Feb. 2009. I have no opinions on the various interworkings of the market. I only have my expectations formed by reliable and repeating historic chart patterns. This has worked for me, but everyone must use what brings them both comfort and profit.