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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (77829)	5/18/2007 6:21:18 PM
From: Qualified Opinion	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

The year 2000 was considered a bubble after the fact. What will the current market be called ? PS - Wealth transfer continued today. The truth is the S&P is about flat with where it was in 2000 at the peak, and the S&P is up single digits this year

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (77829)	5/18/2007 10:20:26 PM
From: saveslivesbyday	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Lizzie, the problem with "typical" is that it all depends on your time frame. Remember, the average gain on the DOW and S$P during the 90's (1990-2000) was over 16% per year - not including dividends. So, as many predicted after the peak in 2000 - the markets could be net flat or even as much as up an average of 4% per year, to make the "typical 10%" if it is averaged over 2 decades. Doing a little more math, we have averaged about 1.4% yearly gains on the DOW since Jan 2000. According to mah precise calculations, we need about 25% appreciation over the next 3 years to get to an average of 4% per year, over this decade. Well, I see + 8.5 already this year, so 17% more over the next 2 and 1/2 years - to get the "10% average" over 2 decades? I agree with you that the markets may likely be higher by then - but who could possibly predict the path in getting there?