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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (65650)	5/19/2007 11:42:01 AM
From: Chispas	Respond to of 116555

Don Stott - "Depression?" - I just finished a marvelous book, detailing the history of the building of Rockefeller Center, in New York. It was built at the height of the Great Depression, and cost so much that even the Rockefeller money wasn't enough to finish it. They had to borrow from the Equitable Insurance Company. I have never suffered in a depression, and it is doubtful that any of you readers have. My Dad was a corner druggist, and we didn't suffer. I am going to give you a few snippets from this book, "Great Fortune," to clue you in on what it might be like if we get into another one equal to, or more severe than the one in the 1930's. Remember that the dollar figures are 1930s dollars, and they are easily worth close to a hundred times their current value. "Junior" was John Jr., the wealthiest man in the world...literally. "The value of the stock Junior and his father had bought in their well publicized effort to buoy the market after the Crash had plunged in the months since. Standard of New Jersey, its annual profits shaved from a pre-crash $100 million to less than $300,000 in 1932, had fallen from $83 a share in 1929 to $20 in 1932. Standard of New York had dropped even further, from a peak of $48, to $5.25 a share. "There has been no financial and industrial crisis in the world's history so colossal in its magnitude, so far reaching in its extent and so serious in its character as the present one," he wrote to his father." "The nation was in horrible shape. A year earlier, the International Apple Shipper's Association had figured out how to unload its surplus by selling it - on credit - to the unemployed men who now seemed to be offering apples for sale on every street corner in every American business district. In August of 1931, the Ford Motor Company virtually closed down its Detroit operation, throwing 75,000 men out of work. Two months later, U.S. Steel, Bethlehem Steel, and Alcoa cut the wages of the employees they hadn't already laid off by 10%. In New York, unpaid and often uncollectible taxes reached 15% of total revenues, plunging a desperate city government so deeply in debt that it owed nearly as much as the governments in all 48 states combined. More than a third of all the city's manufacturing firms had gone out of business, and Fortune estimated that there were three-quarters of a million unemployed in the city. There wasn't any construction business left." "Manhattan office space inventory inventory increased by 92%. At Ray Hill's new McGraw-Hill Building, children who came to visit daddy in the office were treated to roller-skating parties on the empty floors. Journalists chronicled "crushing vacancy rates, falling rents, unpaid taxes, and interminable bankruptcy proceedings." Many mortgage holders refrained from foreclosing out of the conviction that taking possession of empty buildings would only push them into their own bankruptcies. Even so, ownership of some mighty towers fell to the auctioneer's hammer. The fifty-three story Lincoln Building on 42nd St, built in 1929 and 1930 at a cost of $30 million, passed to its bondholders in the summer of 1933 for $4.75 million. When the Bank of Manhattan Building at 40 Wall Street teetered into default in 1935, the mortgage holder put it up for sale for $1.2 million; less than the original cost, five years earlier, of the building's forty three elevators. The Bankruptcy of the RCA controlled RKO over a three month period in 1931, caused the film studio's share price to plunge from $50 to less than $1." Believe me it must have been awful. Think about it now. The Fed yesterday admitted that the real estate crash might well last into 2008 or longer. The buck is being printed by the trillions each year and is backed by nothing. Most of what we use is made overseas. Government grows like Topsy, and is out of control. Now a new immigration bill will invite hundreds of thousands more illegals into America. The D.C. Gang seems to be so utterly stupid as to not know even the time of day. For goodness sake, get out of debt and get out of dollars. Store some food? Not a bad idea. I hope is doesn't happen, but a lot of smart people are saying it will, and be worse than the so called "Great Depression," which wasn't cured till FDR got us into WW II. Have a great weekend. coloradogold.com

To: mishedlo who wrote (65650)	5/19/2007 2:27:12 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

The alchemists of finance May 17th 2007 From The Economist print edition Global investment banks are taking ever more risk, and are devising ever more sophisticated ways of spreading it, says Henry Tricks (interviewed here). Is that reassuring or worrying? economist.com

To: mishedlo who wrote (65650)	5/19/2007 3:38:18 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 116555

I stand by my previous analysis from February of this year on the Shanghai index. Message 23300119 I anticipate a run to 4262 by early June, a correction into August to around 3400, with most of the drop coming by early July, then a 50% rise from there into the end of 2007. That market should correct to at least 3000 by the end of 2008, and likely lower. The lack of short positions in that market will make the drop wicked, IMO. While the China stock market is certainly in a frenzy, it's not alone amongst emerging markets.

To: mishedlo who wrote (65650)	5/21/2007 4:22:03 AM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Current Account Balance: What does this mean for the US and Europe going forward? Found it from a kind poster over on IH. West Rank Country Current account balance Date of Information 1 China $ 179,100,000,000 2006 est. 2 Japan $ 174,400,000,000 2006 est. 3 Germany $ 134,800,000,000 2006 est. 4 Russia $ 105,300,000,000 2006 est. 5 Saudi Arabia $ 103,800,000,000 2006 est. 6 Norway $ 63,330,000,000 2006 est. 7 Switzerland $ 50,440,000,000 2006 est. 8 Netherlands $ 50,170,000,000 2006 est. 9 Kuwait $ 40,750,000,000 2006 est. 10 Singapore $ 35,580,000,000 2006 est. 11 Venezuela $ 31,820,000,000 2006 est. 12 Sweden $ 28,610,000,000 2006 est. 13 United Arab Emirates $ 26,890,000,000 2006 est. 14 Algeria $ 25,800,000,000 2006 est. 15 Hong Kong $ 20,900,000,000 2006 est. 16 Canada $ 20,560,000,000 2006 est. 17 Malaysia $ 17,860,000,000 2006 est. 18 Libya $ 14,500,000,000 2006 est. 19 Brazil $ 13,500,000,000 2006 est. 20 Iran $ 13,130,000,000 2006 est. 21 Nigeria $ 12,590,000,000 2006 est. 22 Qatar $ 12,510,000,000 2006 est. 23 Taiwan $ 9,700,000,000 2006 est. 24 Finland $ 8,749,000,000 2006 est. 25 Iraq $ 8,134,000,000 2006 est. 26 Angola $ 7,700,000,000 2006 est. 27 Oman $ 7,097,000,000 2006 est. 28 Belgium $ 6,925,000,000 2006 est. 29 Austria $ 5,913,000,000 2006 est. 30 Argentina $ 5,810,000,000 2006 est. 31 Chile $ 5,063,000,000 2006 est. 32 Denmark $ 4,941,000,000 2006 est. 33 Philippines $ 4,900,000,000 2006 est. 34 Luxembourg $ 4,630,000,000 2006 est. 35 Trinidad and Tobago $ 3,259,000,000 2006 est. 36 Azerbaijan $ 2,737,000,000 2006 est. 37 Egypt $ 2,697,000,000 2006 est. 38 Korea, South $ 2,000,000,000 2006 est. 39 Bahrain $ 1,999,000,000 2006 est. 40 Gabon $ 1,807,000,000 2006 est. 41 Botswana $ 1,698,000,000 2006 est. 42 Yemen $ 1,690,000,000 2006 est. 43 Indonesia $ 1,636,000,000 2006 est. 44 Peru $ 1,515,000,000 2006 est. 45 Israel $ 1,463,000,000 2006 est. 46 Uzbekistan $ 1,410,000,000 2006 est. 47 Burma $ 1,247,000,000 2006 est. 48 Congo, Republic of the $ 1,215,000,000 2006 est. 49 Vietnam $ 1,029,000,000 2006 est. 50 Ecuador $ 727,000,000 2006 est. 51 Bolivia $ 688,000,000 2006 est. 52 Papua New Guinea $ 661,000,000 2006 est. 53 Namibia $ 572,000,000 2006 est. 54 Cote d'Ivoire $ 460,000,000 2006 est. 55 Cameroon $ 419,000,000 2006 est. 56 Morocco $ 389,000,000 2006 est. 57 Bangladesh $ 339,000,000 2006 est. 58 Turkmenistan $ 321,200,000 2006 est. 59 Equatorial Guinea $ 175,000,000 2006 est. 60 British Virgin Islands $ 134,300,000 1999 61 Kazakhstan $ 133,000,000 2006 est. 62 Cook Islands $ 26,670,000 2005 63 Palau $ 15,090,000 FY03/04 64 Tuvalu $ 2,323,000 1998 65 Samoa $ -2,428,000 FY03/04 66 Tonga $ -4,321,000 FY04/05 67 Comoros $ -17,000,000 2005 est. 68 Kiribati $ -19,870,000 2004 69 Swaziland $ -23,130,000 2006 est. 70 Sao Tome and Principe $ -24,400,000 2006 est. 71 Vanuatu $ -28,350,000 2003 72 Micronesia, Federated States of $ -34,300,000 FY05 est. 73 Anguilla $ -42,870,000 2003 est. 74 Cape Verde $ -44,430,000 2006 est. 75 Gambia, The $ -54,610,000 2006 est. 76 Burundi $ -57,840,000 2006 est. 77 Haiti $ -58,720,000 2006 est. 78 Tajikistan $ -73,950,000 2006 est. 79 Lesotho $ -75,440,000 2006 est. 80 Seychelles $ -78,590,000 2006 est. 81 Antigua and Barbuda $ -83,400,000 2004 82 Guyana $ -84,300,000 2006 est. 83 Rwanda $ -104,100,000 2006 est. 84 Honduras $ -160,000,000 2006 est. 85 Zambia $ -165,400,000 2006 est. 86 Macedonia $ -167,000,000 2006 est. 87 Belize $ -173,400,000 2006 est. 88 Malawi $ -186,000,000 2006 est. 89 Ghana $ -219,000,000 2006 est. 90 Armenia $ -247,300,000 January-September 2006 est. 91 Togo $ -261,900,000 2006 est. 92 Zimbabwe $ -264,600,000 2006 est. 93 Kyrgyzstan $ -287,300,000 2006 est. 94 Paraguay $ -300,000,000 2006 est. 95 Chad $ -324,100,000 2006 est. 96 Benin $ -342,700,000 2006 est. 97 Guinea $ -344,000,000 2006 est. 98 Cambodia $ -369,000,000 2006 est. 99 Mexico $ -400,100,000 2006 est. 100 Uganda $ -423,000,000 2006 est. 101 Eritrea $ -440,500,000 2006 est. 102 Mozambique $ -444,400,000 2006 est. 103 Fiji $ -465,800,000 2006 est. 104 Panama $ -467,000,000 2006 est. 105 Madagascar $ -504,000,000 2006 est. 106 Laos $ -504,200,000 2006 est. 107 Belarus $ -511,800,000 2006 est. 108 Syria $ -529,000,000 2006 est. 109 Moldova $ -561,000,000 2006 est. 110 Uruguay $ -600,000,000 2006 est. 111 Burkina Faso $ -604,600,000 2006 est. 112 Mauritius $ -651,000,000 2006 est. 113 Albania $ -679,900,000 2006 est. 114 Georgia $ -735,000,000 2006 est. 115 Tunisia $ -760,000,000 2006 est. 116 Slovenia $ -789,200,000 2006 est. 117 Nicaragua $ -883,000,000 2006 est. 118 Senegal $ -895,200,000 2006 est. 119 Thailand $ -899,400,000 2006 est. 120 Tanzania $ -906,000,000 2006 est. 121 Malta $ -966,200,000 2006 est. 122 Jamaica $ -970,000,000 2006 est. 123 Cyprus $ -1,051,000,000 2006 est. 124 El Salvador $ -1,059,000,000 2006 est. 125 Sri Lanka $ -1,118,000,000 2006 est. 126 Kenya $ -1,119,000,000 2006 est. 127 Dominican Republic $ -1,124,000,000 2006 est. 128 Costa Rica $ -1,176,000,000 2006 est. 129 Cuba $ -1,218,000,000 2006 est. 130 Guatemala $ -1,533,000,000 2006 est. 131 Bosnia and Herzegovina $ -1,730,000,000 2006 est. 132 Estonia $ -1,919,000,000 2006 est. 133 Ukraine $ -1,933,000,000 2006 est. 134 Colombia $ -2,219,000,000 2006 est. 135 Serbia $ -2,451,000,000 2005 est. 136 Latvia $ -2,538,000,000 2006 est. 137 Lithuania $ -2,572,000,000 2006 est. 138 Jordan $ -2,834,000,000 2006 est. 139 Croatia $ -2,892,000,000 2006 est. 140 Iceland $ -2,932,000,000 2006 est. 141 Ethiopia $ -3,384,000,000 FY05/06 est. 142 Slovakia $ -3,781,000,000 2006 est. 143 Czech Republic $ -4,352,000,000 2006 est. 144 Sudan $ -4,510,000,000 2006 est. 145 Poland $ -4,548,000,000 2006 est. 146 Bulgaria $ -5,100,000,000 2006 est. 147 Lebanon $ -5,339,000,000 October 2006 148 Pakistan $ -5,486,000,000 2006 est. 149 New Zealand $ -7,944,000,000 2006 est. 150 Hungary $ -8,392,000,000 2006 est. 151 Ireland $ -9,450,000,000 2006 est. 152 Romania $ -12,450,000,000 2006 est. 153 South Africa $ -12,690,000,000 2006 est. 154 Portugal $ -16,750,000,000 2006 est. 155 Greece $ -21,370,000,000 2006 est. 156 Italy $ -23,730,000,000 2006 est. 157 Turkey $ -25,990,000,000 2006 est. 158 India $ -26,400,000,000 2006 est. 159 France $ -38,000,000,000 2006 est. 160 Australia $ -41,620,000,000 2006 est. 161 United Kingdom $ -57,680,000,000 2006 est. 162 Spain $ -98,600,000,000 2006 est. 163 United States $ -862,300,000,000 2006 est. cia.gov

To: mishedlo who wrote (65650)	5/21/2007 5:42:22 AM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Did everyone see this article, subprime in OC Register..... Mindblowing, these are the helicopter drivers of the new economy...... West ocregister.com ""Just five years ago he was selling cars. Then, in January 2002, he anted up $250 for a state lender license and started selling home loans through his company, Quick Loan Funding. Over the next five years, Quick Loan wrote $3.8 billion in mortgages, lending money fast – and often on onerous terms – to people with shaky credit. Boosted by high fees and interest rates – high even for the subprime industry – Quick Loan's after-tax profits averaged 29 percent of revenue. In 2005, Quick Loan's biggest year, profit topped $37 million. Sadek used the earnings to live the high life, buying a fleet of Ferraris, Lamborghinis and Porsches, dating a soap opera starlet and producing movies. He flew private jets to Las Vegas, where he gambled with high rollers at the Bellagio Resort.""

To: mishedlo who wrote (65650)	5/21/2007 10:10:09 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

so ... it's long the NDX / short Shanghai, eh?? <g> There are a number here who believe the market can't fall before the 'lection.

To: mishedlo who wrote (65650)	5/22/2007 7:19:49 AM
From: westpacific	Respond to of 116555

The new figures for over-the-counter derivatives, released yesterday by the Bank for International Settlements. The amount of money at stake in the contracts jumped 93 percent last year, to $470 billion. The notional value of credit derivatives based on bonds and loans almost doubled, to $29 trillion. 40 percent in a single year to $415 trillion. ``Just think about all the crises that haven't happened,'' Robert Merton, a Harvard University finance professor and one of the founders of Long-Term Capital Management LP, said in an interview published yesterday in the Financial Times. The examples Merton cites, though, don't constitute a true test of market resilience. Source: bloomberg.com

To: mishedlo who wrote (65650)	5/26/2007 7:18:02 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Men in their 30s make less than dads did, a report says. Outsourcing and the advancement of women are cited. Los Angeles Times - By Molly Selvin, Times Staff Writer - May 26, 2007 latimes.com American men in their 30s earn less than their fathers' generation did at the same age, potentially reversing longtime assumptions that each successive generation will be better off than their predecessors, according to a study released Friday. Family incomes of thirty-something men have continued to rise in recent decades, but mostly because more of their wives are working, the study's authors said. Yet even with the addition of women's paychecks, the rate of family income growth has slowed. Taken together with data showing more workers are earning less in comparison with the stratospheric incomes of top earners, the report suggests that a growing number of Americans "believe that the rules of the game are no longer fair," said John E. Morton, director of the Economic Mobility Project at the Pew Charitable Trusts and one of the study's lead authors. In 2004, the median income for a man in his 30s was $35,010, 12% less than that of men in their 30s in 1974, adjusted for inflation, according to the study, which was based on Census Bureau data. By contrast, thirty-something men in 1994 earned 5% more than their older counterparts. Researchers focused on that age group because income in one's 30s is a good predictor of lifetime income, according to the report. Outsourcing and the demise of higher-paying manufacturing jobs have contributed to the stagnation in men's incomes, Morton said. The influx of well-educated women into the workforce since the 1970s may also have exerted downward pressure on men's wages, he said. Freelance television editor Chapen Hayslett said he earned $48,000 to $50,000 when he worked steadily, a figure that he said was probably less than what his father made at the same age as an Air Force officer. The 31-year-old North Hollywood resident hasn't discussed the income difference much with his parents, but he said they understood that "employers are being more selective and paying less." Hayslett said the $80,000 in student loans he accumulated earning his film degree at USC might have limited his earning potential, at least in the short run. "I didn't have the ability to take as many risks in taking jobs or being more decisive," he said. "It was … 'Oh my God, I need a job.' " The Pew report is the first in a planned series of studies on economic mobility, drawing together researchers representing prominent think tanks from across the political spectrum, including the American Enterprise Institute, the Heritage Foundation, the Brookings Institution and the Urban Institute. The generational income gap highlights troubling questions, Morton said, including what happens if an increasing percentage of Americans believe the American dream "is off limits to them." The Pew study does not make policy recommendations. But economist Heather Boushey, with the Washington-based Center for Economic and Policy Research, contends that focusing on low-wage jobs would help curb the relative slide in men's earnings. In particular, she supports boosting the pay of low-wage jobs above the minimum wage, along with on-the-job training that encourages career advancement. A stronger push to college also could help raise men's earnings. "Education has always been the one staircase out of the class-stratified society," said Ellen Galinsky, president of the Families and Work Institute in New York. Yet among those under 50, 32% of women hold a four-year college degree, compared with 23% of men. That's a dramatic change from the past, when younger men were better educated than younger women. Die-hard careerist baby boomers may partly explain the inability of thirty-something men to move up the income ladder as quickly as their fathers. From the moment Generation Xers first set foot in the workplace, the boomers have been the "ceiling" blocking their way up the income ladder, said Peter Rose, a partner with marketing research firm Yankelovich Inc. in Los Angeles. "The boomers stand out in defining themselves in terms of their work and have shown a disinclination to get out of the way," he said. Freelancer Hayslett thinks there's another factor at play: "Honestly, it seems that women are more together," he said. They're more stable and focused, he said, as compared with "a lot of guys who feel so frustrated that they tend to move around and leave." .