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Politics : The Environmentalist Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: longnshort who wrote (12781)	5/20/2007 10:25:09 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 36917

Everything but the cosmic wind chill effect is included. They even have a correlation for what would happen if all the white kitchen sinks in the world were placed outside to reflect heat back out of the atmosphere.

To: longnshort who wrote (12781)	5/20/2007 10:35:43 PM
From: neolib	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36917

I'm not sure how complex, but they model El nino/nina, which is the solar activity cycle, and they do have cloud formation, but the big question with both is how they might shift as the average world temp shifts. As a 1st order, one could stick with static models for both, which might be fine if temps drift 1 or 2 degs higher, but then you would need adjustments for higher levels. Nobody says the models are perfect, but they are not bad. Please look at how well Hansen's model did over the last 3 decades. That is what is quite impressive. You are basically arguing that such accuracy can't be. Yet you have an example showing it is. Would you claim that the same model cannot to about as well for the next 30 years. We have even better models now. Thats the point. Why don't you think the current models can't get within 5-10% over the next 30 years?

To: longnshort who wrote (12781)	5/21/2007 12:05:26 AM
From: neolib	Respond to of 36917

do the models include solar activity or even cloud formations ? I did find this: All global climate models include the effects of water vapor and cloud forcing. Clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in future projections of climate change by global climate models, owing to the physical complexity of cloud processes and the small scale of individual clouds relative to the size of the model computational grid. from here: en.wikipedia.org Regarding solar variation and climate, the link here is an interesting read: en.wikipedia.org I'd say that it sounds like electromagnetic fields and leukemia: nobody can prove anything yet.