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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (5898)	5/22/2007 9:46:50 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24246

When the Oil Supply Runs Out Alfred Cavallo, Science Magazine The article "The looming oil crisis could arrive uncomfortably soon" (R. A. Kerr, News of the Week, 20 Apr., p. 351 is far too equivocal in its discussion of such a vital topic, noting first that the most likely scenario is a resource-constrained peak by 2020, then that political factors must be taken into account in a discussion of peak oil production, and finally concluding that there is so much uncertainty that "predicting the peak may not be worthwhile." Much, but not all, of the political uncertainty regarding production rates can be captured by partitioning conventional oil extraction into OPEC and non-OPEC components. This has been done by ExxonMobil and others; ExxonMobil has concluded that non-OPEC production will peak by 2010. On the basis of this forecast, ExxonMobil has publicly stated that it will build no new refineries, presumably because the crude supplies needed may not be available from OPEC producers. The high and rapidly fluctuating U.S. gasoline prices currently being experienced are due in large part to a shortage of domestic refinery capacity, so that we are in fact already feeling the effects of an imminent non-OPEC peak. Recently, Ecuador rejoined OPEC, and Angola has also become a member. Over the next two or three years, it will become clear that crude oil is indeed a finite resource, and we will be forced to adapt to much higher petroleum prices as India and China continue to expand their automobile and airline fleets. Fortunately, there are many ways to cope with this new state of affairs, first and foremost by embracing energy efficiency and conservation not as virtues for the elite, but as urgent and universal national goals. Alfred Cavallo Energy Consultant Princeton, NJ, USA References A. Cavallo, Nat. Resources Res. 11 (no. 3), 187 (2002). M. Rogers, Oil Gas J., 8 Nov. 2004, p. 16. A. Cavallo, "World oil production: focus on non-OPEC supplies," World Oil, April 2006, p. 103. A. Shihab-Eldin, M.Hamel, G. Brennand, Oil Outlook to 2025, OPEC Review Paper (2004). (18 May 2007) The article discussed by Dr. Alfred Cavallo is online at Energy Bulletin: The looming oil crisis could arrive uncomfortably soon. energybulletin.net