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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ecrire who wrote (5362)	5/22/2007 4:40:57 PM
From: RonMerks	Respond to of 50317

'They are probably in no hurry to raise interest rates, and, even if they do, it will be a miniscule change and may have negligible effect on the carry trade.' I disagree with the part about small changes in Japanese rates having 'negligible' effects upon the carry trade. We've already seen what small changes and even what just jawboning can do. I think the unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade remains one of the 'events' waiting to happen. It will lead to shocks in derivatives potentially as well. Something, at some time will give the global financial markets a generational shock. It will be many times what Long Term Capital, or the S&L crisis was. It may not lead to soup lines like the great depression- but, I think a 33-50% correction in the DOW and double digit US unemployment will be the result. Ron