Baptism of fire shows Obama can take the heat
__________________________________________________________
By Albert R. Hunt
Bloomberg News
Sunday, May 27, 2007
The presidential campaign of the political newcomer Barack Obama is 100 days old, and David Axelrod, its political mastermind, thinks his candidate is well positioned.
At an outdoor restaurant on an unseasonably warm May afternoon in Chicago, Axelrod acknowledges mistakes made and problems ahead. He believes, however, that there have been far more successes and that the fundamentals favor the freshman Democratic senator from Illinois.
The 2008 American presidential election, he argues, will be about change, or a corrective to the unpopular George W. Bush presidency, just as the 1976 election was about an antidote to Richard Nixon or 1980 to Jimmy Carter or 2000 to Bill Clinton's shortcomings.
"People are looking for a remedy," Axelrod says. "What they don't like about Bush is his stubbornness, excessive partisanship, excessive ideology or catering to special interests. They are looking for civility to re-engage in a national dialogue around a common goal."
Obama has passed the initial tests for that challenge: He and Hillary Clinton raised more money than anyone else, Republican or Democrat, in the first quarter of this year, and he is expected to outdistance everyone this quarter; he's generating the largest and most enthusiastic crowds and corps of volunteers; he has made no major gaffes; and in the polls, he is a solid second nationally.
More important, he is running ahead or within striking distance of Clinton in the early primaries.
Thus, the confidence exuded by Axelrod and Obama campaign aides at the 33,000-square-foot, or 3,065-square-meter, headquarters in downtown Chicago is more than the usual campaign spin. In a "change" election, they believe the political currents are with them.
More than a few disinterested experts concur. "The scope and size of his events are unbelievable," says Bill McInturff, a leading Republican pollster. "It speaks to an inchoate desire for change. In looking at Democratic primary voters, what is striking is Obama dominates the dimension of change. That is a pretty good piece to have on the chessboard in 2008."
To be certain, the first 100 days produced speed bumps. The campaign was drawn into a couple of silly debates with the Clinton camp. Obama trails Clinton in endorsements, and she is doing better than he is among black voters, even though Obama is the first serious African-American presidential hopeful.
Obama also sometimes appears tired and testy and has a penchant for exaggeration. And his audiences, expecting a stirring speaker, can leave one disappointed.
More substantively, in two encounters with the other Democratic candidates, he has been less than impressive. In a Nevada forum, he was thrown off balance when asked why he had no comprehensive health care plan; in a South Carolina debate, he was tepid when asked how he would respond to a terrorist attack, though he later recovered.
A growing number of critics are asking "where's the beef," or meaty substance, in his positions on health care, the economy and national security. Will his inexperience worry voters in the post-9/11 world?
Some seasoned Obama supporters are concerned about how he will handle the combat of a protracted national campaign, including widely expected assaults from the Clinton juggernaut.
Fair comment, the Obama camp responds, and no insurmountable concerns. The less-than-glittering debate performances? He'll get better, and voters aren't gauging debating points, they say.
"In this presidential election, voters want to take your measure," Axelrod says. "They want to check your demeanor, look for grace under fire and make a judgment who they want to be president."
The less-than-stem-winding stump speeches? Obama, who catapulted to national attention with a stirring speech at the 2004 Democratic national convention, is actually more of a natural conversationalist than rousing speaker. The campaign plans a series of town-hall-type forums in states like Iowa and New Hampshire, which they say will showcase his strengths.
The lack-of-substance rap? He recently made a major foreign policy speech and gave an energy address in Detroit that was generally well-received (though it was inexplicably short on fealty to labor in that union stronghold). On Tuesday, he will unveil a broader health care plan, and soon other big domestic and national-security proposals.
What of his inexperience in a post-9/11 world? Axelrod says the Bush administration's failure in the war against terrorists has made it harder for Obama's opponents to use that argument against him. The president, he says, "has cheapened that card."
As for his trailing in the African-American vote, the pollster McInturff says time and exposure will change that. "Obama will do much better than he's polling with African-Americans," he said. "That will create tremendous trouble for Hillary Clinton in Southern primaries."
How to counter Clinton's more impressive establishment and political backing? The Obama campaign points to its outpouring of grass-roots support. He is running circles around the field in "netroots" fund-raising and draws record crowds - the Chicago operation is running weeklong "Camp Obamas," where 50 twenty-something-year-olds are trained and then fan out to important states.
There will be traumatic moments in the months ahead, caused by a miscalculation, a revelation or an effective attack by opponents. There is in every campaign. How Obama reacts under fire may be the most important question in the race.
In this space seven months ago it was suggested the odds were great that this process, often unfair, would trip up any newcomer, including Obama, and that his would be an ill-advised candidacy. That underestimated him. It's now only an even proposition that this "freak show" of scrutiny will do him in.
If it doesn't, he has a better chance than any candidate to be the next president. That includes Clinton, who won't make major mistakes, or any of the Republicans. Obama's fate is largely in his own hands. That is what makes David Axelrod confident.
iht.com |
