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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ChanceIs who wrote (85356)	5/28/2007 10:58:38 AM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206191

The injections have been strong and the weather bearish. The markets are betting on another hot Summer. Also all indications are that we will have hurricanes. Hurricanes can be bullish if they knock off production, but generally they reduce demand in key ng consuming areas along the gulf and south east. I will let the weather begin to prove itself. Also Robry data has some alarming production data that combined with the strong injections has me cautious. With Robry data and weather forecasts I expect to manage my exposure over the next 2 months. One concern I have is the strong demand last year was tied to widespread extreme conditions. We could have a long drawn out hot Summer that does not force the peakers as much.

To: ChanceIs who wrote (85356)	5/28/2007 11:06:30 AM
From: ChanceIs	Respond to of 206191

Addendum: >>>Over the last 4 weeks we have injected stronger than the same weeks in 2003.<<< I forgot to mention "administrative risk - aka federal intervention. In summer '01, the FERC imposed a regional electricity price cap in the West post the California electricity crisis. (Of course the crisis was already over, and caps do nothing but make things worse.) Wall Street runs when the government inserts itself. Trust me - it stampedes for the exits. We are on the cusp of federal intervention: 1) anti-gouging, 2) windfall profits, and 3) removal of '05 Energy Act credits. Politics is about horse trading, and the Dems need to demonstrate to J6P that they have protected him from the malignancy of Big Oil and $3.50 at the pump. A pound of flesh must be extracted from Big Oil. I think the anti-gouging is laughable, won't get out of congress and that "W" will veto any anti gouging laws. The windfall profits might go through, which I think (from the gut) would cause a sell-off in and of itself. Probably the Dems will get the credits withdrawn - stupid but a reasonable political compromise given the state of things.