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To: LoneClone who wrote (1713)	5/29/2007 8:31:31 AM
From: LoneClone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 193039

China's Primary Aluminium Output to Top 15.5Mt By 2010 By David Harman 28 May 2007 at 11:50 AM GMT-04:00 resourceinvestor.com SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- China's primary aluminium output will exceed 15.5 million tonnes in 2010, a senior official with the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA) said at 4th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum today. Strong demand for aluminium and high prices will continue to stimulate the expansion of smelters. China's investment in new aluminium smelting projects in the first three months 2007 amounted to RMB3.53 billion ($461.57 million). Aluminium demand is still growing from transportation, electric power, construction, telecommunication and electronic components industries. Lang Dazhan with CNMIA estimates alumina price will stay at no less than RMB 3,000 ($392.27) per tonne in the coming period in 2007, while the electrolytic aluminium prices will remain above RMB 18,500 ($2,418.97) per tonne. CNMIA believes aluminium smelters, with high energy consumption and heavy pollution, will be gradually phased out. Meanwhile, large integrated smelters will continue to expand in a sustainable manner. Primary aluminium output in 2007 will be 12 million tonnes, up 28.34% from last year, Lang said. Aluminium futures settled slightly higher on spillover strength from the strong upward trends of copper and zinc. The most traded July contract closed up RMB 190 ($24.83) or 0.96% at RMB 19,910 ($2,602.27) per tonne. Commentary It is agreed that domestic demand for aluminium remains strong. However, there is every reason to believe that oversupply may be looming. Look to the alumina industry and China's domestic capacity and to increased local capability in the electrolytic process. It is already apparent that excess output is pressuring price. Domestic demand alone with not be able to sustain the industry as capacity increases. Therein lay the problems as the export market is coming under greater scrutiny and restrictive policies are widened. © Interfax-China 2007. This article comes from Interfax China Commodities Daily, a daily digest produced by Interfax News Agency in Mainland China. To receive 10 free copies of this, please e-mail david.harman@interfax-news.com.