To: Biomaven who wrote (23840 ) 5/29/2007 4:18:07 PM From: Mike McFarland Respond to of 52153 The current warming trend is probably partly due to anthropogenic forcing (mostly CO2 emmisions) and partly some natural trend in the current interglacial (mostly solar irradiance). Whether it is 80/20 or 50/50, the warming is surely good for a few degrees C and at least several hundred years of warmth. Maybe thousands of years, but certainly not for tens of thousands of years before the ice returns (small consolation, ha). In any event, now lets say that 5 to 10 billion humans inhabit the planet for the next several hundred years. A good guess unless there is a plague. I think most of these people will never have access to cheap nuclear power, coal yes, oil too. The US may go nuclear, Europe and Japan are ahead of us. But India and China, probably not. And certainly not Africa. Now a show of hands. Who thinks the planetary fossil fuel resource is NOT going to be depleted over the next several hundred years? Those seem to me the important variables. Not so much what gets the greater share of the blame. CO2 is the best guess of course. And finally, some countries will see a net benefit anyway. Canada, Russia, the Scandanavian countries. Longer growing season and greater forest productivity. Probably warming is a net loss for America--mostly due to an unwillingness to build reservoirs and infrastructure to cope with climate change. That is my two cents anyway, what I've gleaned from the mostly white noise that the issue generates. One of the things that is pretty interesting and has been in the news--what could happen with hurricane activity. More frequent El-Nino's could increase shear and actually decrease activity in the South Atlantic. But surely that energy will just go elsewhere--it probably ends up in stronger extra-tropical and subtropical systems elsewhere. One winter means nothing--but over the past winter the jet stream across the Pacific stayed directed at the Pacific Northwest. Usually the storm track sags south over Oregon and California for the middle part of the winter. If global warming means mild, stormier and wetter winters for Seattle--no thanks! The early dry spring, sure, quite nice, but this past winter winter here was just awful. Windstorms and mudslides...