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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: E_K_S who wrote (26991)6/2/2007 12:08:03 PM
From: - with a K  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 78774
 
Nice summary of the TRGL opportunity. There's a lot of warts here, but I am encouraged by the new wells, insider buying, and thinking the worst is behind them. Snip from the iVillage board about CK Cooper's report May 10:

The upside remains in the SASB, where the Company has already drilled four additional successful wells since its year-end reserve report. Three of these wells in the deeper waters tested a combined 82.5 Mmcfe per day, while a shallower well the Alapi-1 tested at 7 Mmcfe per day. This would imply an additional 30 to 40 Bcfe of net reserve potential to Toreador’s interest.

Typically the largest risk for investors to stomach is exploration risk. It would seem this risk has been mitigated with 13 out of 15 successful wells in the SASB. The risk that remains is Toreador’s ability to complete development and begin generating cash flow to keep the drill bit moving without taking down additional debt or issuing further dilution.

We continue to belief in Toreador’s business plan and asset base. It has been extremely frustrating and embarrassing to say the least witnessing this destruction of value over the past few months. However, we are not throwing in the towel and believe investors will be rewarded when buying shares at these absurdly depressed levels. We are therefore maintaining our current rating of a BUY while lowering our price target to $25.00 reflecting the Company’s current balance sheet and applying a slight discount to our Risk Adjusted Break-Up Value of $27.78."


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Similar in my thinking of increasing my exposure to energy companies doing business outside the US, I've recently bought UGP:
Message 23591258