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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (7096)	6/5/2007 6:45:56 PM
From: Triffin	Respond to of 26020

Ganu forecast from weatherunderground .. Animated satellite imagery and two recent microwave images (051522z ssmis and 051729z amsu) indicate that the core deep convection, particularly over the eastern semi-Circle and convective banding, have weakened rapidly due to dry air entrainment, land interaction, and a sharp decrease in ocean heat content. This hostile environment is forecasted to continue to impact the system through the forecast period. Tc 02a continues to track along the southwest periphery of the mid- level subtropical ridge and is forecast to track northwestward through tau 24. After tau 24, the track is foreacst to become more north-northwestward as the system moves into a weakness in the steering ridge enhanced by an approaching shortwave trough. The 05/12z upper air analysis shows this weakness over The Straits of hormuz currently and expected to remain in this area. There is increased uncertainty in track after tau 24 since steering will shift to a lower level as the tc weakens under 60 knots and this low-level steering could produce a more westward track toward ash shariqah. It is important to note that tc 02a will become a very weak tc with 30-40 knot intensity after tau 48 due to extremely dry air. Therefore, regardless of the 48-72 hour track, the system will not be a significant tc. The available dynamic aids have stabilized and are in good agreement with the northwestward track and rapid weakening trend. This forecast is based on a consensus of the aids through the period but reflects slower track speeds after tau 36 due to land interaction and weaker steering. Maximum significant wave height at 051800z is 32 feet. Next warnings at 060900z and 062100z.// Antsy tanker owners will tell their captains to move soon .. Triff ..

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (7096)	6/6/2007 8:55:25 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26020

Wednesday morning update: The AP reported, 'Oman's eastern provinces were cut off, with heavy rains making the roads unusable and communication lines severed. "We have no communication with them, nothing," said a senior police officer.' Gonu has weakened and is moving parallel to the Oman coast, but enough offshore that there will be very little in the effects of wind -- however surge and waves will still be a problem, and possibly rain. Below is one of the last vis images of the day there: wunderground.com ================= Cid Yama on June 6, 2007 - 6:33am \| Permalink \| Subthread From the Above picture it appears the Western Eye Wall is right over the Oil Terminal at Mina al Fahal. Direct Hit. maps.google.com. = Cid Yama on June 6, 2007 - 7:52am \| Permalink \| Subthread This storm has stopped moving. It's been sitting there pounding Muscat and the oil terminal at Mina al Fahal for a couple hours. theoildrum.com