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Politics : THE WHITE HOUSE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (5426)	6/6/2007 4:55:54 PM
From: DuckTapeSunroof	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25737

Electoral Chaos: How Michael Bloomberg Could Deadlock Both the Electoral College and the House of Representatives Friday, June 01, 2007 rasmussenreports.com Rumors abound that Michael Bloomberg might spend a billion dollars running for the White House as an Independent, putting him on a competitive footing with the major party candidates. That might make it possible for Bloomberg to win several states and prevent anybody from winning a majority of the Electoral College votes. The House of Representatives would then select a President, something that hasn’t happened since 1824. The few political commentators who have considered this possibility dismiss its significance. They reason that since Democrats control the House, the Democratic candidate would automatically move into the White House. That assessment reflects a profound misunderstanding of the process outlined in the Constitution. If no candidate wins a majority in the Electoral College, the top three candidates are submitted to the House of Representatives. Presumably, this would be a Democrat, a Republican, and Bloomberg. (see polling data) The House would then vote, but the result would not be determined by the overall number of Representatives. According to the Constitution, each state gets to cast one vote… and a majority of all the states is required to select a President. That means a candidate needs to get the nod from 26 state delegations before moving into the White House. Today, the Democrats control precisely 26 state delegations. Republicans control 21 and 3 are tied. But, many are closely divided. If the Democrats lose a single state delegation, they lose the majority needed to select a President on their own. In at least 12 state delegations currently controlled by Democrats, the loss of a single representative would either shift control to the Republicans or create a deadlock. If the Democrats lose just a single net seat in any one of those twelve states, they lose control of the ability to select the next President in the House. If a Bloomberg campaign resonates with the public enough to win several states; his candidacy could create a deadlock in both the Electoral College and the House of Representatives. Certainly his strategists would recognize this and target the most vulnerable Democrats in key states to assure such an outcome. What happens if nobody controls a majority of the state delegations in the House? It’s hard to tell, but whatever happens would be studied by historians and political scientists for generations. There would certainly be an unprecedented and intense period of negotiations between Election Day and January 20. A deal could be reached prior to the Electoral College voting. Or, it could go to the House (with the Senate called upon to select a Vice President). The possibilities are too numerous and speculative to consider here, but it is hard to overstate the leverage that Bloomberg would hold. If he finishes a strong second in the national popular vote, that leverage would be limited only by his desire to use it. There is even a decent chance he could wind up as President. To give just one extreme example of the possible negotiating tactics, remember that the vote for Vice President is held separately from the vote for President. If Bloomberg really played hardball, his team could cast their Electoral Votes for, say, the Republican Vice-Presidential candidate. By electing a Republican Vice-President, Bloomberg would put tremendous pressure on the Democrats to negotiate with him. Why? Because if the House remains deadlocked on January 20, the already elected Republican Vice President would assume the role of President. This, of course, is not a likely scenario. But, if Michael Bloomberg is truly serious about investing a billion dollars in a Presidential campaign—and if he can find a message that truly resonates with the American people--he has the potential to fundamentally alter Election 2008 in ways we can’t begin to imagine. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election....

To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (5426)	6/6/2007 5:00:14 PM
From: DuckTapeSunroof	Respond to of 25737

2008 Democratic Presidential Primary: Clinton 34% Obama 26% Edwards 15% The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone poll of the Democratic Presidential nominating competition shows New York Senator Hillary Clinton at 34%, Illinois Senator Barack Obama at 26%, and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards at 15%.... rasmussenreports.com That’s virtually unchanged from a week ago. The immigration debate has shaken up the Republican competition had no noticeable impact on the Democratic nominating process. The current survey was completed before last night’s debate among Democratic contenders. Only 8% of Democrats believe history will judge the U.S. mission in Iraq a success and that’s a much more potent issue within Nancy Pelosi’s party. Largely because of Iraq, Democrats are heading into Election 2008 more competitive on national security issues than at any time in recent history. In fact, on ten key issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports, Democrats are trusted more than the GOP on all ten. Among Presidential hopefuls, this is the fifth straight week that Clinton has been at 34% or 35%. She has been within three points of the 35% level in fourteen of the last 15 weekly updates. Stability is found throughout the numbers for all candidates. This week is the fourth time in five weeks that Obama has been at 25% or 26%. While the newcomer to national politics enjoyed a brief expansion of support heading into the first debate among Democratic hopefuls, he has generally been in the mid-20s. Obama continues to do better than Clinton among independents likely to vote in a Democratic primary. Edwards has consistently been in the mid-teens (eleven straight weeks within three percentage points of the 15% mark). Other polls and anecdotal evidence suggest that Edwards is leading in the first caucus state, Iowa. Obama is from neighboring Illinois and might also do well in Iowa. If Clinton continues to hold solid leads in the national polls but does poorly in Iowa, it is likely to dramatically shake up the race....