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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Trading Cabana -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (2135)	6/7/2007 6:38:12 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 6370

Of course there is little indication that it is "done", as always the market can not be timed. But the idea is that much like 2000, private equity funds overbought again. They did not buy at private-equity alike valuations they bought in order to flip it in a couple of years. Listen, greater fools! For example, Cerberus bought the BAWAG for nearly $4B; BAWAG is not earning significant cash flows. Lots of repair work is to be done before the fund will see a significant if any, investment return. They can not rely on capital markets to be open to place such company, indefinitely. It is entirely possible that there is not difference in herd mentality and hubris beween fund managers and the general investor. What might be different is access to the markets and risk management tools (perhaps not even skills). Some catalysts would be fine - like a couple big mergers turning sour. Then people would start looking deeper. ------------------------ Here, risk management skills are also far from perfect. That what's left from my put portfolio is very slowly gaining value. On the other hand I thought perhaps a little bit of the money from stock sales goes to - treasuries? Wrong! Not a dime went into treasuries. They fall too and they fall fast, in Europe and in the US. This is a new development and it can only mean tight money.

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (2135)	6/7/2007 8:37:39 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6370

Asia just opened and finally asian stocks are also hit on a larger scale, japan, korea just coming off multi year highs and open at -1.50%. People scramble to bid up index puts like mad ... Bids in contracts are small, gone are the overconfident 300-something bids in contracts, much like in germany where one could smell the selling all day. Normally if the korean market would gap down at the open traders would soon bid up the contracts once the dust settles. This time there is no buying, just flat, and another down leg should follow. China will be interesting, a volatile often thin market...the HSCE index rose from 8000 to 10000 then to 11000 in no time, the last 1000 points shall be undone quickly.

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (2135)	6/10/2007 10:01:09 AM
From: Tatnic	Respond to of 6370

Every time I expect a meltdown lately I've been proven wrong and paid a price. The only thing that makes me think it might be different this time is that bond prices have broken down noticeably. Are the chinese all of the sudden shifting more of their cash towards europe? Or is this just another insignificant blip on the radar? I might short a little TLT just to see what happens.

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (2135)	9/21/2007 4:09:17 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6370

Here, an acquisition by a financial buyer went sour: Harman. It is no secret that hot money is hard to come by. Troubled KKR itself was not able to raise money through an IPO, so far. The demand for the FDC deal is "robust", though. WASHINGTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Harman International Industries, Incorporated (NYSE:HAR - News) announced that it was informed this afternoon that Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P. (KKR) and GS Capital Partners VI Fund, L.P. (GSCP) no longer intend to complete the previously announced acquisition of Harman by a company formed by investment funds affiliated with or sponsored by KKR and GSCP. KKR and GSCP have informed Harman that they believe that a material adverse change in Harman's business has occurred, that Harman has breached the merger agreement and that they are not obligated to complete the merger.Harman disagrees that a material adverse change has occurred or that it has breached the merger agreement. Forward Looking Information This communication contains "forward looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Those forward looking statements include all statements other than those made solely with respect to historical fact. Numerous risks, uncertainties and other factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are not limited to, (1) the occurrence of any event, change or other circumstance that could give rise to the termination of the merger agreement; (2) the outcome of the discussions relating to the status of the proposed merger; (3) the inability to complete the proposed merger due to the failure to obtain stockholder approval or the failure to satisfy other conditions to the merger; (4) the failure to obtain the necessary financing arrangements set forth in the commitment letter received in connection with the proposed merger, including as a result of the current condition of the debt capital markets; (5) the inability to complete the proposed merger on the terms set forth in the merger agreement; (6) risks that the proposed merger disrupts current plans and operations of Harman and the potential difficulties in employee retention as a result of the merger; (7) the outcome of any legal proceedings that may be instituted by or against Harman and others following the announcement of the merger agreement; and (8) other factors described in Harman's filings with the SEC, including its reports on Forms 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K. Many of the factors that will determine the outcome of the subject matter of this communication are beyond Harman's ability to control or predict. Harman undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements, or to make any other forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future results or otherwise. Harman International designs, manufactures and markets a wide range of products for the automotive, consumer and professional markets. Its brands include Harman Kardon®, JBL®, Revel®, Mark Levinson®, Infinity®, Lexicon®, Soundcraft-Studer®, AKG®, Becker® and QNX®. The company maintains a strong presence in the Americas, Europe and Asia and employs more than 10,500 people. Harman International Industries, Incorporated (www.harman.com) is a leading manufacturer of high-quality, high-fidelity audio products and electronic systems for the automotive, consumer and professional markets. The company's stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the Symbol: HAR.