Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Another Investment forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rsroberto who wrote (104)	4/17/2013 9:05:13 PM
From: greatplains_guy	Respond to of 340

Are Earnings Expectations Realistic? John Mauldin April 17, 2013 In today’s Outside the Box, Sheraz Mian, Director of Research for Zacks Investment Research, gives us a thorough overview of corporate earnings trends for the past several quarters, along with consensus expectations for this year and next. Then he asks, “How realistic are these expectations?” Not very, he says, and proceeds to tell us why. If we accept his analysis – and he admits right up front that it runs counter to the consensus – then we should be asking ourselves, how does a potential falloff in earnings vs. expectations matter, and why is it important at this particular juncture? I’ll let Sheraz answer those questions, too – he does so convincingly – but I’ll just add that his analysis is a significant piece in the puzzle we’re all putting together here in this tipping-point year of 2013. Depending on what the politicians and bureaucrats do, or fail to do, in the US, Europe, and China (not to mention Japan), we could turn one of two corners this year: The left-hand turn – toward ever more QE, ballooning fiscal deficits, and an accelerating global currency war – would take us further up Inflation Hill, whose back side is a sheer cliff. The right-hand turn – toward deepening austerity and unemployment – spirals us down into the Morass of Negative Growth. It is only by forging straight ahead along the Main Street of innovative business and technological development, supported by balanced fiscal and financial policies and realistic market expectations (based on valid data and assumptions – something I have been driving at in my last couple Thoughts from the Frontline letters), that we will get through this challenging decade intact. But that is a difficult path to find between the siren calls of austerity and more printing. Zacks Investment Research was founded in 1978 by Len Zacks, PhD. Many innovations have come from this firm over the years, including the creation of the Earnings Consensus that many investors now use to compare earnings estimates with actual earnings reports. Most notably, Len discovered the predictive power of earnings estimate revisions. He harnessed these benefits into the proprietary Zacks Rank stock rating system that has allowed Zacks Rank to compile an outstanding track record. Zacks is offering OTB readers, at a very low rate, a one-month trial of all their products. You can learn more here. As I write this, I find myself in Singapore, where it is early Wednesday morning, so I have lost a day – but I’ll get it back next Friday. I will meet Grant Williams in a few hours, and we will take a train to Malaysia for lunch and discuss the markets and business. Then it’s back to Singapore for a little work before enjoying the evening, when Simon Hunt and Steve Diggle will join us for dinner. The next day is meetings with event sponsors Saxo Bank and The Business Times, and then it is Writing Night – a day too early, but deadlines are deadlines, no matter which side of the international date line you are on. Saturday night was rather amazing. I am used to more subdued fundraising events, but Dr. Mike Roizen is one of the senior guys in the Cleveland Clinic, and the Lou Ruvo Center for Brain Health in Vegas is part of the Cleveland Clinic system and is setting all sorts of records. If I or someone I knew had Alzheimer’s, I would check it out. I guess if you are Michael Caine and Quincy Jones you can gather a lot of stars (it was their 80th birthday). I was told they raised the second most ever for an event like this. The proceeds go toward research into Alzheimer’s and brain injuries/trauma. OK, so Bono walks out on stage unannounced and nails Frank Sinatra. Who knew Bono could do Sinatra? (The hook was, Q produced Sinatra). We were treated to Steve Wonder, Patti Austin, and Shaka Kahn – all of whom still have their chops and look great – Carlos Santana, and on and on. It was good to see people my age (ahem) still going strong on stage. You can watch the whole thing on various cable channels and donate a few dimes with your cell. It really is time to hit the send button. Have a great week. And yes, I know gold went down. That just means I get more coins when I buy at the end of the month – if it will stay down. Your needing to find a gym analyst, John Mauldin, Editor Outside the Box subscribers@mauldineconomics.com mauldineconomics.com